Cold and dry weather is expected through Monday under high pressure. Precipitation is expected Monday night and Tuesday with crossing low pressure. High pressure then returns dry weather mid week.
Today – Veteran’s Day – will be sunny and bright with high pressure in control. We will see a few fair weather clouds this afternoon as temperatures warm to the low 40s. Average highs should be around 55 degrees, so we will still be about 13 degrees colder than average.
The sunshine will help make it tolerable, though. And the dry air that has settled over the region will somewhat of an advantage as the next storm system to affect east-central Ohio moves up the east coast tomorrow.
Clouds will increase tonight as high pressure slips off to the east and upper-level moisture moves in overhead. We will stay dry tonight in the Valley and temperatures will cool off to the mid-20s.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
We’ll remain dry with increasing clouds on Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. Chances for rain will increase after sunset Monday as the front inches closer to the region. Meanwhile, a storm system will be moving north along the east coast Tuesday morning.
Precipitation will spread into east-central Ohio Monday night. Temperatures will be warm enough initially for this to fall as rain. Eventually, as temperatures aloft cool early Tuesday morning, snow showers will begin to mix in before precipitation changes over to all snow around sunrise Tuesday.
The system will move up the coast fairly quickly, so I do not expect much in the way of accumulating snow here in east-central Ohio. Sure, there will be some white patches on grassy areas, but for the most part, impacts on travel will be non-existent. The ground and roads are fairly warm yet and most of the snow should melt. Bridges and overpasses may be more prone to snow accumulation as these surfaces will be colder.
I will say that there are yet some differences in model solutions regarding the timing and track of the low. The GFS is faster and brings precipitation earlier, while the European brings precip in much later. I’ll have a better idea regarding this system on Monday and will post an update. Hopefully, I’ll be in a better position to fine tune precipitation types and accumulation numbers.
Snow showers will taper off Tuesday afternoon ending Tuesday night. Sunshine and dry weather will return Wednesday as high pressure builds.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid-30s – just cold enough to support wet snow. Wednesday will bring afternoon temperatures around freezing.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
High pressure will remain in place Thursday and Friday keeping dry and mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures will remain below average and generally in the low to mid-40s.
The next low pressure system will develop over Texas Thursday and move into the Ohio Valley Friday. This system will spread precipitation back into the region. Temperatures will trend warmer during this period, so this could be more of a rain situation or rain/snow mix.
THINKING ABOUT THANKSGIVING
There has been some discussion on our social media pages regarding my thoughts about Indian Summer and Thanksgiving. I still think we have a decent chance of seeing some warmer temperatures before winter sets in. I’ve been watching the climate forecasts from the various models and my initial thoughts are that we can expect a warming trend the week of Thanksgiving.
Will this pass as a true Indian Summer? We’ll have to wait and see but I’m fairly confident that we will see a warming trend toward the latter part of the month.