Thursday local snow details and a weekend storm update

The freezing drizzle that we had in yesterday’s forecast for this morning will exit east as we get toward lunch time. Temperatures will be slow to warm today which will keep the threat for freezing rain going for a while yet. Even then, highs today won’t get much higher than a couple/three degrees above freezing. The Winter Weather Advisory will remainĀ in effect until noon.

We will stay dry tonight and Thursday morning ahead of the next little system that will bring impactful weather to the Valley Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. This will be a quick-hitting system and is not likely to produce much of an impact. There will be some snow with this but accumulation looks to stay around an inch, generally. Folks in the northern half of the Valley might see a bit more.

Snow should begin around or shortly after lunchtime tomorrow and continue into the evening. Simulated radar from the NAM at 2:00 PM 01/17:

The snow forecast I published on social media yesterday looks about the same. I’ve included a broader range due to the fact that communities along and north of Dover might see a little more snow.

Snow showers should exit east as weak high pressure takes over on Friday. Friday looks uneventful with seasonable temperatures and occasional sunshine.

Okay. Now let’s discuss the big kahuna…

I discussed in an earlier post that it’s moot to talk about snow amounts 5 days out. The main reason being that the low pressure system responsible for our weekend storm is waaayyy out at sea. It is approaching the mainland US today and looks to be on land by tomorrow morning.

Once on land, the storm can be sampled by NWS weather balloons and t collected by instruments on those balloons can be injected into the computer models. Then we can begin to zero in on an exact storm track, precipitation types, and precipitation amounts. Until then, it’s just a waste of time trying to figure this thing out.

So, the good news is we should start to see modeling that makes better sense of things tomorrow. I hope to start talking about snow accumulation and local impacts. I know it’s frustrating, but that’s just the way it is. I’m not going to throw numbers out there when in all reality, no one knows how the storm will track across the country. The north/south track of the parent low will have huge impacts on the amount and type of precipitation that occurs.

WHAT WE KNOW TODAY
Here is what I know this morning…

  1. This is going to be a major winter storm SOMEWHERE
  2. Timing – Saturday morning through Sunday evening
  3. The storm will bring disruptive snow accumulation to parts of Ohio
  4. It will be very windy with arctic cold temperatures
  5. Travel will be difficult

WHAT WE STILL DON’T KNOW

  1. The track of the storm
  2. Where the rain/snow line sets up
  3. Snow amounts for any particular location

HERE IS WHAT I’M PLANNING ON

Beginning tomorrow, details about the storm track, timing, precip amounts, and impacts will begin to come into focus. Expect to see an increase in the amount of detail with the forecast. Those details will change as we get closer to Saturday and data improves over time.

I’ll continue to keep you updated…

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