Warmth and humidity are set to return over the next couple days, but an approaching cold front will also increase our thunderstorm chances on Thursday.
Tuesday will be another nice summer day in the Valley with plenty of sunshine. Smoke in the mid-levels from western Canadian wildfires will make the sun a little hazy, but clouds will be few and far between. Otherwise, temperatures will be warmer today than yesterday and afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s. It will also turn a bit more humid with dew points creeping back up to the upper 60s to near 70°.
Dry weather and mostly clear skies will continue tonight under high pressure.
Warm temperatures again on Wednesday. That plus the fact that the humidity gets cranking again as well as dew points return to the low-70s. This will introduce a bit of instability and the slight chance for isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms in the east-central Ohio region. The threat for thunder will gradually inch up overnight as high pressure shifts east and low pressure from the west moves into the Great Lakes region.
A southerly flow sets up as the low approaches bringing in moisture and pushing dew points well into the 70s on Thursday. It will be noticeably more humid on Thursday ahead of the system’s cold front. Along with the moisture, instability increases during the heat of the day and thunderstorms become likely in the afternoon and evening.
The severe storm potential depends mostly on how much sunshine manages to occur. Some modeling keeps the bulk of the cloudiness in northern portions of the state which would help limit afternoon heating and thus, severe potential. However, some modeling keeps skies south of the US-30 corridor clear enough for a decent amount of sunshine.
For now, we will have to monitor for the potential of isolated severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. The main threat will be strong winds. In addition, the abundant amount of moisture available will bring the threat for local downpours. Thunderstorms should move through quickly reducing the threat for flash flooding.
I’ll continue to monitor the timing situation as we get closer to Thursday but for now, it’s something we’ll have to keep in mind. Regardless of the severe threat, the cold front should move through by Thursday evening and bring a quick end to thunderstorm activity.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
Much drier air will rush in behind Thursday’s cold front and Friday will return much more comfortable dew points to our area. Temperatures will also return to seasonal values here in the Valley with most areas topping out in the low 80s. Basically, a nice sunny and less humid summer day will set up for Friday.
High pressure will prevail on Saturday and temperatures will quickly warm to the mid-80s once again. An upper-level disturbance may travel through the region Saturday night/Sunday so I’ll introduce slight chances for showers/storms on Sunday. Otherwise, we will see mostly sunny and dry conditions with afternoon temperatures in the 86° to 88° range.
HOTTER AND MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK
I mentioned yesterday that the mid and long range modeling was getting pretty bullish on a hotter temperature trend as we head into next week. We may be in for a stretch of days with temperatures in the 90° degree range next week. Factor in the humidity and heat indices could be well into the upper-90s to 100°.