Fall officially got underway a few days ago, but it sure doesn’t feel much like fall. Temperatures across the Tuscarawas Valley have been running well above average and it looks like the warmth will continue well into October – again.
If you remember, summer temperatures remained until October 12 last year. After the 12th, cooler temperatures finally settled in and remained for the remainder of the month.
This year looks to be a repeat of 2018. According to the Climate Prediction Center, above-average temperatures are expected to remain at least into the first half of October.
Long-range climate models from the CFS and European show similar results and agree with the CPC outlooks. As a result, confidence is unusually high for the warm temperatures to hang in there for a while.
We normally begin to see average daytime temperatures drop off in September and October locally. Our average daytime high at New Phila for October is 64°. Average nighttime lows run in the 40s.
Our overall average October temperature in New Phila is 52°. Lately, temperatures have trended warmer than average, so another warm October would not be something unexpected.
If the current forecast proves to be accurate we will even have the opportunity to see a couple of record high temperatures either matched or broken during the next 7 days.
But, temperatures will eventually catch up with the changing season and settle into a more autumn-like pattern. Today’s model runs indicate that we should begin to see cooler temperatures toward the end of next week. Next weekend’s highs will be much cooler than this weekend.