A couple of nice days yet before rain moves in for Saturday

Thursday will bring another bright autumn day to the Valley. We may see a few more clouds this afternoon with a weak cold front approaching from the northwest. The front is pretty weak and is getting weaker by the hour so I expect most of the cloud cover associated with it will occur in northern portions of Ohio.

Temperatures today will be slightly warmer than yesterday and we should see afternoon highs in the mid to upper-60s locally.

That weakening frontal boundary will continue to shift south through east-central Ohio tonight and Friday. With its weakened strength and lack of any significant moisture, chances for any rain is too low to even mention in the forecast. I can’t completely rule out a few sprinkles somewhere Friday morning but it really wouldn’t amount to much. However, tomorrow will be a cloudier day as the front slowly shifts south of the region. Afternoon highs look to peak in the low-60s.

High pressure now over Virginia will shift east as a low pressure system approaches from the Mississippi Valley and tracks northeast into Ohio. Chances for rain showers will accompany the low and it’s associated front Friday night with widespread showers likely on Saturday.

GFS MODEL DEPICTION for Saturday afternoon. Low pressure will spread rain showers into the Valley from the south.

While there are slight differences between the models in regards to timing, rain will likely spread southwest to northeast during the day. The best chances for rain in our area looks to be Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. The system’s cold front will lift through Sunday morning and we should start to see things dry out Sunday afternoon.

All of the current modeling suggests that this system has the potential to bring a fairly decent slug of rain. Rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times – especially Saturday night into the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning. NWSWPC suggests we could end up with an inch of rain or better before the rain moves out Sunday morning.

National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center anticipated rainfall through Sunday afternoon.

High pressure will build late in the day Sunday and continue to provide dry weather through midweek. Afternoon temperatures on Monday look to bring the warmest day of the week with highs in the low to mid-60s. Tuesday looks a bit cooler at this point with highs near 60°.

Although there are significant model differences with regards to timing, all models agree on a potent storm system developing in the Southern Plains early next week. The system is forecast to track into the central/western Great Lakes region Tuesday night and proceed eastward Wednesday and Thursday.

Again I’ll mention that this is a week out and there is a big disagreement in how fast/slow the storm system advances into east-central Ohio. However, this just might approach or come through around next Thursday or Friday. If the timing is right, it would bring rain and gusty wind which would have an impact on your plans for Halloween. Just something to keep in mind at this point.

Regardless of the exact timing, this system looks to bring a significant pattern change. Colder than average temperatures look to dominate the latter part of October and early November.



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