A couple of mild autumn days, then rain and colder temperatures to end the week

Monday and Tuesday will bring the last days to get out and enjoy the local fall foliage. High pressure will slide across Ohio today and this morning’s fog will give way to a gorgeous afternoon with mostly clear skies and plenty of sun. The high shifts off to the Atlantic coast this afternoon setting up a light southerly flow allowing temperatures to warm to the mid to upper 60s.

Skies will remain mostly clear overnight and the warm southerly air will help keep lows tonight fairly mild as well.

That cold front over Illinois today will inch east and cross east-central Ohio on Tuesday afternoon/evening. It’s a weak boundary and most of the moisture associated with this appears to stay north of the Valley. We will see an increase in cloud cover tomorrow afternoon as this feature approaches and crosses over the area. A sprinkle or light shower can’t be completely ruled out but for now, the odds look pretty low.

The strong southwesterly flow will push in additional warm air into the region and afternoon highs tomorrow afternoon will soar to the low 70s.

OCTOBER ENDS ON A WET NOTE
Tuesday’s weak boundary will stall south of Ohio on Wednesday and provide a path for several areas of low pressure to track along. The strongest of these will set up Thursday night into Friday which can result in a period of rain and wind for Halloween.

While it looks like a dry start to Wednesday, chances for showers will ramp up through the afternoon with rain becoming likely Wednesday evening/night. Widespread showers will likely continue Thursday with the heaviest rain arriving Thursday night into Friday.

GFS MODEL IDEA for Halloween evening showing low pressure and a cold front traversing Ohio accompanied by widespread showers and gusty wind.

The cold front associated with this system will likely cross sometime late Thursday night or Friday morning. This cold front will be a game-changer and it’s likely to bring the first snowflakes to northern Ohio counties along the I-80 corridor.

Back here in the Valley, temperatures will remain warmer than average on Thursday with a gusty wind setting up Thursday night. Colder air will rush in Thursday night/early Friday morning. I can’t rule out a little graupel pre-dawn Friday. Daytime highs will struggle to reach 50° – nighttime low will dip to around freezing Friday night.

GFS MODEL has colder air moving in behind a cold front Thursday night into early Friday morning. Colder temperatures can be expected on Friday and the weekend.

There are differences in the timing and strength regarding this system and the exact arrival of the front. However, confidence is fairly high on widespread rain especially Thursday night. Details will eventually come into focus by mid-week.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK
Dry conditions and sunshine look to return for the weekend but temperatures will remain below average. Daytime highs Saturday and Sunday will mainly top out in the upper 40s with nighttime lows in the low 30s. Lake effect snow showers will be possible downwind of Lake Erie.

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