Posted: 10:31 AM EDT 10/30/2019 Updated: 12:16 PM EDT 10/30/2019
There are not many changes in the previous forecasts other than fine-tuning the weather events that will unfold during the next few days. Strong low pressure will move out of the lower Mississippi Valley and track northeastward along a stalled cold front that’s in southern Ohio today. This system will strengthen as it progresses northeast into Ohio and drag a potent cold front across east-central Ohio Thursday evening.
Odds for rain locally will gradually increase this afternoon and this evening. Widespread rain will become likely in all locations tonight as the system advances northeast into western Ohio.
I don’t expect to see much rain locally today other than light spotty showers this afternoon and this evening. I’d give a 20%/30% chance in any one location. On the positive side, temperatures will be mild today. Afternoon highs this afternoon should get to around 63°/65°.
The widespread rain moves in tonight and pre-dawn Thursday. Thursday will be a rainy, dreary day locally. Rainfall could come down at a decent clip at times with light showers and drizzle between those heavier times.
Southerly winds will also pick up through the day with gusts in the 20/25 mph range during the afternoon and evening. The wind shifts to the west Thursday night as a strong cold front crosses. Wind gusts will ramp up to 30/35 mph along and behind the front. You might want to think about securing those Halloween outdoor blow-up thingies.
Wind, coupled with rain will likely strip most of the remaining leaves from trees. Goodbye, pretty colors.
Many local communities have trick-or-treat scheduled for Thursday evening. It doesn’t look like a fun time.
Moisture wrapping around the low will keep the threat for showers going through midnight Thursday night. Cold air will rush over the region behind the front. I can’t completely rule out some graupel mixing in before precipitation ends just before dawn Friday morning. Locations in northern Ohio counties will have better odds for snow.
High pressure will bring diminishing clouds and sunshine back to the Valley on Friday. It will be a colder and blustery day despite the sun. Gusty morning winds will also subside during the day. Temperatures Friday afternoon won’t warm much more than the upper-40s.
By the time it’s all said and done, we can expect about an inch to 1.5 inches of rain over the next 36 hours.
High pressure will dominate the weekend and that means fair skies. Saturday will be the warmest day of the weekend with afternoon highs around 50°. Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs in the upper-40s. A disturbance crossing northern Ohio may bring back showers along the I-80 corridor – maybe even some snow. Model projections keep our area dry and snow-free Sunday.
Gardeners take note: nighttime lows Friday night through Sunday night will dip to freezing in many locations.