Dry through Thursday; Wet weather returns for the weekend

Clear, sunny skies this morning across the Valley. Despite the welcome sunshine, it is cold with temperatures starting out in the upper teens locally. A secondary cold front will drop south through east-central Ohio today. That will bring an increase in clouds this afternoon but little chance of any precipitation. A few flurries will be possible but nothing enough to make an impact. Skies should clear out once again toward evening.

Temperatures today will stay below freezing. A brisk west wind will make for wind chills in the teens. Gusts may be in the 15 to 25 mph range as the front comes through this afternoon. With skies clearing again overnight, look for lows in the mid/upper-teens again.

Temperatures tonight will dip to the teens once again.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
High pressure overhead will shift east on Thursday allowing a more southerly flow to set up. Temperatures will begin to rebound to the upper-30s. Clouds will increase late in the day as a coastal low pressure system advances north along the Atlantic. While the core of this system will stay well off to our east, it will spread moisture into east-central Ohio on Friday. Chances for rain will gradually increase locally Friday afternoon and rain will be likely Friday night.

GFS MODEL Friday night. Low pressure along the Atlantic coast will spread rain showers into east-central Ohio.

Temperatures on Friday will peak in the mid-40s and remain near 40° Friday night so precip type with this is expected to be all rain for us.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

HIGHLIGHTS

  • Widespread rain Saturday
  • Light snow possible early Sunday
  • Still lots of model spread with Monday/Tuesday system

Rain showers are likely to continue into Saturday before mixing with snow early Sunday with a cold front crossing. Accumulation locally looks to be limited due to the fact that dry cold air will quickly follow the front.

Temperatures in the mid-40° range Saturday will keep precipitation type as rain, Sunday will be colder behind the front with highs in the upper-30s.

The models continue to vary dramatically with the next system due in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. The GFS model is the warmest keeping the parent low pressure north. This scenario would mean rain as the primary precip type here in the Valley. The Euro and Canadian models place the low further south which would bring snow into the picture for our area.

GFS MODEL DEPICTION MONDAY NIGHT. This model keeps low pressure to the north which would make the early next week system a rain event for the Valley. Other models bring the system further south which would bring snow into the forecast for early next week.

The north/south track of this next system will determine the type of impacts we see locally. Precipitation is likely but whether it means rain or snow is still a big question. Plenty of time remains yet to hash out the details and I will continue to post updates.

WHITE CHRISTMAS PROSPECTS
Long-range climate models have not backed off on the idea for above-average temperatures during the latter part of the month. With warm temperatures projected, it’s looking unlikely for snow around Christmas. Sure, this is long-range stuff and by no means set in stone. But, the modeling has been very consistent with a warmer-than-average scenario for quite some time.

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