Weekend rain and snow; Updated thoughts on early next week storm system

Yesterday’s reinforcing cold front and clearing skies overnight allowed temperatures to dip down to the teens once again. those clear skies will stick around through the rest of our Thursday as high pressure shifts off to our east. With eastern high pressure setting up a light southerly flow, temperatures will warm into the 36°/38° range locally.

We will remain dry overnight. Temperatures tonight will be about 10° warmer than last night. Still, quite chilly, though, with lows in the upper-20s.

Friday looks to start out decently. Morning lows will be noticeably warmer than they were this morning with a few clouds. Cloud cover will thicken through the day, however, as our next weather system approaches. Eventually, the system will spread rain showers into east-central Ohio by Friday night.

GFS MODEL early Saturday morning

Rain showers will continue into Saturday across the Valley as the storm system moves north along the Atlantic coast. Winds will shift northeast Saturday night bringing in a colder airmass. As temperatures cool off Saturday night, expect some snow to mix in before precipitation changes over to all snow.

GFS MODEL Saturday evening

Leftover precipitation Sunday morning will likely start out as wet snow, then change back to rain before everything pulls off to the east mid-morning. Cloud cover may begin to break Sunday afternoon allowing for some brief sunshine.

Temperatures in the 40s Saturday will support rain showers before cooling to just below freezing Saturday night. Sunday afternoon temperatures won’t warm much more than the mid-30s.

Early projections indicate relatively minor snow accumulation with this system. One-half to one-inch of wet snow is my initial call. Most of that would be on hard surfaces and grassy areas. Given the local temperature profile, the main roads should do fine.

Considerable uncertainty remains with the storm system I’ve been talking about here for the Monday/Tuesday time frame. Confidence is high regarding the prospects for precipitation through the period. However, the type of precipitation we might expect is still a crap-shoot.

The European model continues with its more southerly track through the Ohio Valley which would keep east-central Ohio on the cold side of the storm – meaning, we would see wintry precipitation types. The GFS, however, tracks the storm through the Great Lakes keeping us on the warm sector. That northerly path would bring mostly rain to our area.

The bottom line at this point is no one knows how this storm will play out locally. All we can do is continue to watch for changes in future model runs for signs of agreement with regards to the system’s track – north or south. A storm is likely Monday/Tuesday but whether it brings rain or snow and ice is not in any way certain yet.

All I can promise is that I won’t steer you wrong. I live right here in New Phila so the local weather has an impact on my day just as it has on yours. if it looks like snow, I’ll tell you that. If it looks like rain, I’ll tell you that as well. There is no advantage for me to sensationalize my own weather forecast.



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