A pattern shift will bring colder temperatures late in the week

A mainly southerly flow will keep temperatures well above average with a few chances for showers early in the week. Low pressure will bring colder air and chances for wintry precipitation late in the week.

High pressure will keep east-central Ohio dry today. Clouds, however, will be tough to clear out as a passing disturbance crosses east in northern Ohio. The best chances for any sun will be late in the day as the disturbance moves east tonight. Temperatures this afternoon should warm to near 50° in most neighborhoods.

MONDAY WEATHER FEATURES

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
A warm front is forecast to lift over the region on Tuesday. There is not a lot of moisture associated with the front and what there is looks to remain north of the area. Still, a bit of light rain can’t be completely ruled out so will need to keep low odds for a shower.

Another weak low will move through the Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Again, the lack of substantial moisture will bring low odds for a shower to our area during the morning hours. A second stronger low will move east through the Great Lakes in the afternoon. This one will drag a cold front through the region. Any rain/drizzle will change over to snow as colder air flows in behind the front.

NAM3k (North American Model) Wednesday AM. A light spotty shower will be possible locally.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with afternoon highs around the mid-50s. Wednesday looks a bit cooler but still quite warm with highs around 50°.

THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
High pressure will return dry conditions on Thursday. Temperatures, however, will be more in liking to where we should be in mid-January.

Our focus then turns to a strong storm system that will impact our area late in the week. Although there is a lot of uncertainty with the development of this system, the models generally indicate a low developing in the central Plains and tracking eastward into the Great Lakes region by Saturday. Warm air ahead of the low would mean rain as the primary precipitation type for Saturday with a change to snow Saturday night as temperatures cool.

GFS MODEL IDEA of a low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region Saturday morning. Significant model differences remain with the track, timing, and strength of the low. This is but one example from one model. Changes in the weekend forecast are likely through the week.

Again, there is little agreement between the different models regarding the strength, timing, and track of the system’s low. That means significant changes are likely for the weekend forecast. Confidence is high, though, that this system will bring a shift toward seasonal temperatures for the remainder of the month.

TEMPERATURE PROFILE from the European ensemble forecast model.

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