Posted Tuesday, 7/21/2020 3:30 PM
Last Edited: 5:16 PM
The last time we saw any substantial rain here in the Valley was on July 11 – 10 days ago. We really need some rain at this point. And, it looks like we will have a couple of good opportunities for appreciable rain on Wednesday.
A warm front will lift through east-central Ohio tonight. Temperatures will remain warm overnight locally. Dew points will increase as warm moist air behind the front spreads northward. Expect low temperatures tonight in the 70° range. It will also turn quite humid.
A storm system will move out of Missouri and into the Great Lakes region around sunrise Wednesday. This will bring our first opportunity for rain early tomorrow morning. Our odds for showers/storms with this first batch is around 305/40%. The system will be running into a more stable air mass, so we’re not expecting much. Certainly nothing severe. However, there will be plenty of moisture for storms to work with. Some of these early morning showers/storms, if they occur, could be efficient rain producers resulting in pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall in our area.
The morning showers and storms will exit the region quickly. Skies will likely clear up and allow for plenty of sunshine through the early afternoon. Temperatures locally will likely reach the upper-80s to around 90°.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop west and travel east in the afternoon. IF the atmosphere has enough time to recover from the morning activity, the environment locally can become unstable enough to support thunderstorms capable of producing strong downdrafts late in the afternoon into the evening.
In addition to the potential for strong wind gusts, these storms will be able to tap into very moist air and could bring moderate to heavy rainfall and localized flooding in some areas.
Thunderstorms Wednesday night will be followed by a cold front pushing through the region Thursday morning. This will likely bring yet another round of showers and storms. Drier, less humid air will flow into the region on Thursday.
Should things play out as the models are suggesting we could see about a quarter-inch to a half-inch of rain through Thursday afternoon. Higher amounts are possible in those communities that end up with a strong thunderstorm.
Updates will be posted here as this forecast develops and changes. I also post real-time local weather info on Twitter (@tuscwx).