After a full week of dry weather and cooler temperatures, the chances of showers and thunderstorms return to the Tuscarawas Valley to kick off the last week of July.
After a dry start this Sunday morning, low-end odds for an isolated shower, or maybe even a thunderstorm, will become possible late in the day into Sunday night. Any showers/storms during the second half of the day will be scattered about, so your chances of getting any rain are simply the luck of the draw. Most locations will remain dry.
The chances for strong thunderstorms today and tonight should remain mainly off to our west where conditions are more favorable for a gusty storm or two.
Regardless of any rain, dew points will come up today, and it will feel noticeably more humid. Temperatures, however, should stay fairly close to our average for late July – around 84° – under partly cloudy skies. The return of wildfire smoke aloft will cause hazy sunshine today as well.
Confidence is strong in the development of severe weather impacting the east-central Ohio region on Monday. However, there is still a ton of uncertainty regarding the timing, strength, and evolution of the storms. Much of how Monday and Monday night play out will depend heavily on how things play out today and tonight across the upper Midwest.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop as temperatures warm Monday afternoon. Recent high-resolution modeling also suggests thunderstorms developing over the Great Lakes Monday evening and tracking southeastward Monday night in advance of a cold front. Conditions will be favorable for strong wind gusts in any of the storms that move through Monday and Monday night.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat with thunderstorms Monday and Monday night. Hail and tornadoes are a much lower risk, and flash flooding will be limited to those locations that might get multiple storms.
The main takeaway is that the risk of severe storms will remain a possibility well after dark Monday night and into the wee hours Tuesday morning.
Although the actual radar probably won’t look exactly like the model simulation, it does indicate several clusters of thunderstorms could very well travel across the region Monday night. Several other high-resolution models support this idea.
The system’s cold front should cross the east-central Ohio region on Tuesday, and the thunderstorm threat will decrease. Any severe potential should shift off to the southeast with the front on Tuesday. High pressure then builds into the region on Wednesday.
Hopefully, additional details will come into focus today and tonight regarding the severe potential on Monday. We’ll keep you updated with any new data that comes in going forward. Until then, enjoy the rest of your Sunday.
