This early morning round of thunderstorms has pushed well off to the east and south as of mid-morning Saturday. Our area should remain dry through the majority of the afternoon and early evening. However, a second round of showers and thunderstorms may impact the area later this evening until around midnight.
Generally, the scattered storms late Saturday should remain sub-severe for the most part. Nevertheless, a storm with fairly gusty wind can’t be completely ruled out.
Weak high pressure and a capped atmosphere will keep dry weather across the area for Sunday. It’ll be warm and humid with daytime temperatures running close to average.
After Sunday’s break, our unsettled weather pattern will resume on Monday with a return of shower and thunderstorm chances with an uptick in the potential for severe weather.
The potential for more-organized thunderstorms on Monday will depend on how things in western Ohio play out Sunday night and Monday morning. If cloud cover and rain showers linger into Monday morning in NW Ohio, the potential for severe storms developing later in the day will be reduced. If not and skies manage to clear quickly, afternoon and evening thunderstorms may be more likely to tap into moisture and high instability aloft.
The main concerns would then become damaging straight-line wind gusts and heavy rainfall. These will also be more likely to be slow-moving thunderstorms, so heavy rainfall for extended periods could result in some flooding issues as well.
There is model disagreement yet at this point, but all of this will get worked out today and Sunday.
The one thing that does look fairly consistent is that this system will hang around through much of next week. Slowly but surely, the system will eventually push a cold front through the region by mid-week, bringing a reduction in the potential for daily shower and thunderstorm chances during the latter half of the week.
