Our active weather pattern continues through much of this week with numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Unfortunately, confidence in where and when any storms will impact our area is low since it will depend heavily on activity that occurs previously. The best practice at this time is to closely monitor weather forecasts as changes are likely going forward.
The morning round of showers and thunderstorms will continue to push off to the south and east as the morning progresses. Although a spotty shower or storm may redevelop this afternoon in the unstable and humid air mass, current modeling leans toward a more uneventful afternoon.
Our attention then turns to later in the day when another potent round of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop along a frontal boundary in Illinois and Indiana and travel southeast into Ohio late this afternoon. Depending on the track of the storm complex, this system may impact parts of the east-central Ohio region this evening/tonight.
Morning guidance from the Storm Prediction Center has remained fairly steady during the overnight and early morning updates and continues to highlight our area in the Level 2 risk.
Storms this evening and tonight would primarily bring a damaging wind threat, but again, with the moisture-rich atmosphere firmly in place, heavy downpours will pose a flash flood risk as well. A Flash Flood Watch has already been issued for the region to highlight this potential.
Previous high-resolution model runs through yesterday have kept the strongest activity with the late-day thunderstorms along and south of I-70. However, recent overnight and early morning runs have shifted this stronger activity a bit farther north. Should this model trend continue with today’s runs, a northward nudge of the Level 3 area may be possible.
I do have to stress, though, that confidence is low in the forecast going forward into tonight. The storm this morning worked the atmosphere over pretty well, and it will leave behind features that may linger long enough to impact the setup later this evening. The line of storms expected this evening is likely to be very healthy, though, and depending on the exact track, could bring some hefty wind gusts.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY
Wednesday and Thursday will bring additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the region. However, the strongest thunderstorms and potential for severe storms will be more likely south of I-70, with slowly decreasing chances for showers and storms each day. The risk of heavy rainfall will slowly decrease after tonight.
We had quite a torrential storm this morning in Johnstown; I believe the system is finished with us now. Iād be very happy if it has depleted some fuel for the later line. Thank you Joe; stay safe!