There isn’t much change in the severe weather outlook this morning. The high-resolution models continue to suggest a line of potent thunderstorms developing ahead of an approaching cold front this evening just south of Lake Erie. These will then push southeastward into the east-central Ohio region late this evening.
Chances for severe storms in our local area will be somewhat weaker this evening, primarily due to the projected timing of their arrival here. The current timing brings the line of storms into the Tuscarawas Valley area after sunset. Instability should be on a weakening trend after 8:00 PM, which in theory, would translate to a weakening thunderstorm trend as storms travel south.
Some storms, however, could still contain strong damaging wind gusts, especially in northern parts of the Valley. The risk of an isolated tornado here is also low (2% probability) compared to those locations further north, but it’s still not zero.
Today’s elevated humidity is also a sign of the abundant moisture storms can tap into, which translates to a potential for heavy downpours in any of the stronger cells.
The threat of severe storms should exit quickly around or shortly after midnight as the front sinks south. The system will also slowly push a trough of low pressure across the area that will stall the front south of I-70. With that boundary nearby, the chances of sub-severe thunderstorms and showers will likely stick around Wednesday night and Thursday. Periods of heavy rain will remain a possibility.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY
Just as a heads-up, high pressure will briefly return fair weather on Friday and Saturday, but our mid-range models indicate a pattern change beginning early next week.
More of a west-to-east type of upper-level flow is projected to set up. Disturbances that develop in the west can ride along the flow and eventually track into eastern Ohio resulting in several rounds of rain early in the week. The models also indicate plenty of moisture ahead, so it’ll continue to be quite humid over the weekend into early next week. We can probably expect some additional heavy rain at times.
