It’s mid- September already and another summer season is nearly behind us. The autumn equinox on September 22 is quickly approaching, which means it’s time for the annual Tuscarawas County Fair. “Fair Week” runs from the 21st through the 27th at the fairgrounds in Dover.
The Tuscarawas Valley is still mostly known as an agricultural area and the annual county fair remains a very popular event locally. I mean, who doesn’t like fair food, critters, farm machinery, entertainment, games, and rides? And, best of all in my opinion are all of the young people who work so hard to raise and care for a farm animal. It’s got to be a lot of work, responsibility, and dedication to take on a project like that. Kudos to them.
An on-going local legend that I picked up on when I first arrived here and decided to make Tuscarawas County my home is that you can always expect it to rain during the fair. I was told it can be dry as the desert here all summer long, but you can bet your life savings it will rain during the fair. “It ALWAYS rains for the fair.”
Is that really true? Or, do folks just say that because they’ve heard someone else tell them. Lets find out!
TIMING
First, let’s take a look at the timeframe when the fair occurs – the third week of September. Records show that September is the fifth rainiest month of the year in our local area. On average we see about 3.26 inches of rain during the month of September locally, so it’s fairly reasonable to assume it would rain at some point during the seven days that the fair operates.
CONFIRMATION BIAS
Human beings have minds that work strangely at times. We tend to easily recall times when things don’t work out so well – like when we’re at an outdoor event and a storm moves in. Or, the day we went to the fair and it rained. We easily forget all those bright sunny days we had at the fair.
It’s really a thing, and we even have a name for it. Confirmation bias. Since we’ve heard repeatedly that it always rains during the fair, we’re quick to recall all the times it rained when we personally attended. It’s just a human thing. Like I said, it’s weird how our brain works sometimes.
LOCAL WEATHER PATTERNS
The fair runs for a week. It’s not unusual for it to rain in any one location at some point over a period of seven consecutive days in the east-central Ohio region. Just saying. What would be unusual is a week without any rain here.
LET’S CHECK THE RECORD
Records show that we can indeed count on it raining at some point during the week of the fair. We’ve kept track of our local weather at the New Philadelphia airport for 28 years and it has rained some time during fair week in all but one of those years – 2020. Every other year has brought at least a trace of rain during that seven day period.
If we put this all together, during an average fair week at the Tuscarawas County Fair, you could expect an average of 0.79 inches of rain during any given year. Of course, some years could see more and some could have less rain. But on average, yeah, it really does rain at some point during fair week here.
And, digging further into our local weather data, one should expect an average of 2 rain days out of the seven that the fair runs. During those two rain days you’ll have a 27 percent chance of at least 0.04 inches of rain each day.
WHAT’S THE RAIN CHANCES THIS YEAR?
Current weather models indicate that we can figure on rain occurring during fair week again this year – especially during the first few days. An upper-level low pressure system is set to move into central Ohio next week and stick around for a while. Our weather will be fairly unsettled as long as the system meanders in and around the vicinity.
That means we can expect periods of showers and perhaps some thunder beginning on Saturday night and remaining through at least Wednesday night. It probably won’t rain all the time, but rain can’t be ruled out at anytime through the period. And, a heavy thunderstorm or two can’t be ruled out at this point, either.
Rain, sunshine, or in between, the Tuscarawas County Fair will be open for your enjoyment. The only shutdown is for lightning safety or severe thunderstorms when folks need to shelter. Other than that, by all means go to the fair next week and have some fun!
Heaven knows we could all use a little more fun.
