Record breaking warmth today. Most Tuscarawas Valley neighborhoods will easily see the mid 70s for the afternoon high. Best of all, we’ll stay dry and we’ll even get in on some broken sunshine this afternoon. And, that warm southern breeze will kick up to around 14 – 17 mph with the potential for 30 mph gusts at times. Except for all the mud, it will be a nice spring day.
The record high in New Phila for today is 69 set in 1884. That will get shattered all to heck. The ALL TIME high temperature for February is 77 set just last year on February 24.
We’ll stay dry and warm overnight, but deep in your heart, you know the warm temps won’t last. This is still February, after all. And, sure enough, a cold front will dip southeast across east-central Ohio Wednesday afternoon that will return cooler – but not cold – temperatures to the Valley.
Wednesday will start out with temperatures in the low 60s but declining temperatures will highlight the afternoon as the cold front crosses. And, widespread rain will return to east-central Ohio with the front.
As temperatures back of to near freezing Wednesday night there may be a brief opportunity for some sleet to mix in with the rain Wednesday night. The best odds for sleet will be from around 9:00 PM to 1:00 AM and those communities in the northern half of the Valley will have the better odds.
The cold front will eventually stall out south of the region allowing a strong southwest flow aloft to pump abundant moisture over the area and keep showers in the forecast on Thursday. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday but remain well above freezing, so all precipitation will be rain.
HEAVY WEEKEND RAINFALL
Unfortunately, several disturbances will ride along our stalled out boundary Friday and Saturday keeping the threat for widespread and abundant rainfall to end the week. With the ground already saturated from recent heavy rain and flooding, the risk for additional flooding will return to the area.
There are differences on the modeling and some have backed off since yesterday’s runs on the amount of rain we might expect, but we’re still going to have to watch this closely during the upcoming days.
It looks as if Sunday will bring the last of these upper level waves. Modeling currently indicates that drier air will finally begin to move in late Sunday allowing for a dry Monday.