Warm temperatures will bring record-breaking highs on Tuesday; More rain and the potential for more flooding will arrive for the second half of the week

A warm front lift north across east-central Ohio accompanied by rain showers this morning. The morning rain should exit north late this afternoon as the front clears with drier weather expected by this evening here in the Valley.

This also shows signs of being a fairly efficient rain producer and pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible at times. Depending on where the heavier rainfall sets up, some neighborhoods could see a return of local flooding issues again.

Hi-res FutureCast radar through midnight tonight:

There is some instability present so a rumble or two of thunder or even a thunderstorm wouldn’t surprise me today. Nothing sever, of course, but remember that lightning is dangerous no matter what time of the year it occurs.

The other big weather factor to start the week will be warming temperatures. Tuscarawas Valley neighborhoods will see afternoon highs climb to the low 60s this afternoon. Tuesday will be particularly warm with highs in the low 70s across the Valley.

Recent model runs have returned a progressively dryer pattern for Tuesday, so I’ve updated the forecast and left chances for rain out.

The record high for Tuesday Feb 20 is 69 degrees set in 1994. We will likely shatter it tomorrow. The last time we had a day where the temperature reached 70 degrees or better was on November 5th of last year.

WETTER PATTERN RETURNS
Wet weather and the potential for more flooding woes will return for the latter half of the week. While Wednesday’s temperatures will once again warm to the mid 60s. There are model differences in timing, but it does appear that a cold front will cross east-central Ohio late Wednesday or early Thursday will return the likelihood for rain and cooler temperatures.

Showers ahead and along the front look almost certain Wednesday afternoon and some may linger into Thursday. With uncertainty in exact timing yet, have kept likely rain in the forecast for Wednesday with chances lingering into Thursday morning. This could change as models come into better agreement regarding timing.

Lingering showers or not, temperatures on Thursday will take a hit dropping back to the mid 40s for the Tuscarawas Valley – still above average, but much cooler than those earlier in the week.

The rest of the week and weekend are problematic. Several disturbances may track across east-central Ohio along a stationary front through the period bringing the potential for periods of healthy rainfall into the weekend. Given the fact that several areas are still recovering from the recent deluge and its resulting flooding issues, the already saturated ground will not be able to handle any additional rainfall. The situation will need to be watched for the return of flooding should the rainfall become heavy or sustained.

NWS-WPC Precipitation forecast for the next 7 days shows the potential for heavy rainfall. This will need to be monitored closely given the already saturated ground here in east-central Ohio.

Our front will lift north once again on Friday allowing temperatures to begin recovering back to the low/mid 50s through the weekend.

RIVER FORECAST
We’re just now recovering from the last bout of heavy rain and with heavy rain again in the forecast, local rivers and streams will need to be monitored for flood.

Of particular concern will be Stillwater Creek. Water levels along the creek have just fallen below flood stage this morning and additional rain today may bring it back up. Although the forecast doesn’t indicate this in the short term, those along Stillwater Creek should monitor the situation closely.

Personally, I suspect that this morning’s hydrograph will be updated soon to reflect the rain expected today. I’ll update this when and if a new hydrograph and forecast is posted.

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