Active weather pattern continues this week in the Tuscarawas Valley

Good Monday morning!

A few folks on our social media pages wondered if our recent forecast for snow showers last night was an April Fool joke. As you can see this morning, it was not – unfortunately. We do occasionally get some snow in April here in the Valley but nine times out of ten it’s usually just a dusting or trace. Heavy snowfall in April is kind of unusual for us.

Here is a look at the highest snowfall events in the Tuscarawas Valley in past years. These readings are from the COCORAHS station at the Dennison Water Works and are unofficial tallies. NWS does not track snow at the weather station at the New Phila airport.

Snow measurements are still coming in to the NWS offices this morning. As soon as they’re all caught up, I’ll have a sampling of regional snow totals up on the blog and our social media pages this afternoon.

Snow showers from last night and this morning are quickly exiting the region this morning and snowfall has ended. Drier air will replace mid and upper level moisture and skies will gradually clear and early April sunshine will begin to melt the snow on the ground during the afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will warm to the mid 40s across the Valley – still a good 10/12 degrees below normal.

Monday’s projected high temperatures from a blend of modeling.

Dry weather should remain with us through the rest of today, but another system will approach east-central Ohio tonight. This next system will lift a warm front across the region on Tuesday bringing the likelihood of rain showers Tuesday morning.

We may get a break in the rain during the afternoon with the Valley firmly in the warm sector. Temperatures will climb to the upper 60s for afternoon and evening highs. I can’t rule out a few 70 degree readings in some spots.

Rain showers will return Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday morning as a strong cold front moves through east-central Ohio Tuesday night. After a warm day Tuesday, temperatures will cool off once again behind the front on Wednesday and afternoon highs will fall back to the mid 40s.

WHAT TO WATCH FOR TUESDAY
Updated with new data 1:30 PM 04/02 | With warm temperatures in the upper 60s Tuesday and a rather potent cold front headed our way south winds will become breezy Tuesday afternoon. Add a bit of instability and we have the recipe for a few strong thunderstorms Tuesday night.

NWS Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of east-central Ohio to a Marginal Risk for severe storms Tuesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has the Valley highlighted in the Slight Risk category for severe thunderstorms which is the standard severe thunderstorm risk (2/5). The upgrade risk category means that the odds for severe storms have increased since their original Marginal Risk issued this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center states that all severe hazards are in play from late afternoon Tuesday through Tuesday night. Damaging wind gusts, hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible. I’ll cover these risks in more detail in a separate blog post later this afternoon. This will be our first real severe weather threat of the season so folks will need to keep up to date with the most current info. Have multiple ways in which to receive any warnings that will wake you when you’re asleep. Outdoor tornado sirens are not an acceptable way to receive severe weather warnings.

Pockets of heavy rainfall will also be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening as well as within any thunderstorms.

According to the hi-res NAM, while showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon and evening hours, the best chances for severe thunderstorms will be around midnight Tuesday night. Here is a look at the simulated radar product from the NAM:

Stay up to date with the latest regarding tomorrow night’s severe potential as the forecast and timing is likely to change somewhat over the next 24 hours.

Gusty winds are likely to continue Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds out of the west on Wednesday may gust to 30 MPH or so.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
Thursday will bring a quiet sunnier day. Temperatures will remain well below normal with highs in the mid 40s. Another fast-moving low will drag a cold front across Ohio Thursday night and bring back the prospects for rain Thursday night. Temperatures will cool off to around freezing and a few snow flakes will be possible Friday morning. Any snow will change over to rain around lunch time with temperatures headed to the mid 40s.

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