Good morning and happy Easter.
There are still challenges in the forecast for tonight’s snow event. Our computer models still disagree in the path of the low pressure system that will ride along a stalled frontal boundary that has set up just to our south.
All models agree on the center of low pressure will track south of the area. But, they disagree on exactly how far south. It does appear that snow will occur in east-central Ohio tonight but questions still remain on how far north the snow will spread and how much snow will fall.
Working in favor of snow accumulating here in the Tuscarawas Valley is that snow will come at night when temperatures are coldest. What is working against any significant snow accumulating here is the time of year and the warm ground. It is much easier for snow to accumulate if there is already snow on the ground. Established snow cools the surface and air near the surface making it much easier for new snow to accumulate. That won’t be the case tonight.
Tonight’s system will also be a fast mover and this will limit the amount of time for snow to accumulate and cool the surrounding air and surface.
With all that being said, some of our modeling places a fairly decent swath of snowfall across portions of central Ohio tonight. Considering the time of year and the warm ground, all of that will not stick. Precipitation will initially start out as rain before 11:00 PM gradually shifting to snow after midnight. The bulk of heaviest and steadiest snowfall will happen from midnight to 6:00 AM Monday.
Snow will quickly end Monday morning as the system speeds east. Clouds will gradually clear from north to south and we’ll even get into some sunshine Monday by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will remain chilly, though. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 40s to near 50 in the Valley.
SO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL STICK?
Given the factors mentioned above, even though snow could be heavy at times tonight, the majority of guidance suggests we will end up with an inch or two of ACCUMULATING snow here in the Valley. Communities closer to I-70 have the best chances of seeing a bit more but two inches even there is unlikely.
I think the Pittsburgh NWS has the right idea for tonight. One to three inches of snow may fall, but more than half of what falls will melt.
All the snow on the ground will melt by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will be below average, but we will get to around 50 degrees.
Have a safe and happy Easter.