A couple of weather system will bring opportunities for precipitation to the Tuscarawas Valley over the weekend. Thankfully, most of this activity will occur during the night.
SYSTEM #1 – SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
We will have a dry Saturday but clouds will increase during the afternoon with the approach of a cold front that will cross east-central Ohio Saturday night. South winds will also turn gusty with some gusts near 30 MPH.
This first system will spread rain showers across the Valley tonight. As gusty winds turn southwest temperatures will drop to around freezing by early Easter morning. Snow showers are likely to mix in with the rain around 5:00 AM. Since temperatures will be right at or just below freezing, this will be some very wet snow.
Some grassy areas might see a dusting of snow but there should be no travel issues. Rain will generally be on the light side with maybe a tenth of an inch total rainfall from this.
High pressure will build back in overhead briefly Easter Sunday as the cold front exits the region taking the rain/snow showers with it. Except for some unseasonable cool temperatures tomorrow, Easter will turn out to be a decent day. We can expect a mix of sun and clouds and afternoon temperatures a chilly 43/45 degrees across the Valley.
SYSTEM #2 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
I did mention in Friday’s blog of the possibilities of this next system to trend farther north. Today’s models have come into better agreement of this northward track of our next low pressure system. Questions remain on exactly how far north moisture from this system will spread, but today’s runs shift everything to the north and into portions of east-central Ohio.
This system will likely spread wet snow showers into the Valley Sunday night. The good news is that it’s a fast-moving system, so any snow showers should clear out quickly Monday morning. The heaviest and steadiest snowfall will be between midnight and 6:00 AM.
HOW MUCH SNOW WILL WE GET?
This system will spread a nice swath of snow through central and southern portions of Ohio Sunday night through Monday morning.
Temperatures will be above freezing Sunday evening and precipitation from this system will start out as rain. After 11:00 PM when temperatures cool off, snow will mix with rain before finally becoming all snow after midnight.
Actually, this system has the potential to bring an inch or three of snow to the Valley Sunday night. However, we need to remember that the ground is relatively warm. While a couple/three of inches of snow might fall across the area, not all of that is going to stick. Some will melt with the rain – especially as snow gets underway early.
All of today’s modeling agrees on a 1″ to 3″ idea by Monday morning. Here is a look at the NAM idea:
The NWS puts the odds of 2 inches or more at around 60% to 70%:
I can see some slick spots on the roads for the early Monday morning commute. I think our main roads will generally be slushy and wet but secondary roads could be covered in places where heavier snow falls. I would expect to see some snow accumulating on open fields and grassy areas.
The further south you must travel, the heavier the snow will be. Heavier snowfall and chances of more snow accumulating more than an inch will be possible along and south of I-70.
As mentioned earlier, this is a fast-moving system and snow will quickly end Monday morning. High pressure will once again return for Monday. The clouds will clear out to bring a nice sunny afternoon to the Valley with afternoon temperatures around 50 degrees.