Easter weekend forecast details

There are not many changes to the forecast today. The cold front has cleared southeast of the region this morning and much cooler air has settled. Clouds and light showers will persist through the morning hours but as the system pulls farther away after lunch this afternoon, drier air will begin to break up the clouds and allow for some sunshine.

Temperatures today will max out in the low 40s in east-central Ohio.

Skies will continue to clear overnight and that chilly northwest breeze will turn calm. With mostly clear skies and calm winds temperatures tonight will drop off the the upper 20s.

Saturday will likely be the warmest and most springlike day of the Easter weekend. A warm breeze from the south will push temperatures across the Valley into the mid 50s under mostly sunny skies. It will turn a little windy as those southerly winds ramp up in the afternoon to around 15 mph or better. Some gusts could reach 25/28 mph.

Clouds will increase once again in the afternoon ahead of our next storm system crossing the upper Great Lakes region. The associated cold front will bring the threat for showers back to east-central Ohio Saturday evening and Saturday night.

The front will also bring an impressively strong shot of cold air back to the region for Easter Sunday. Any showers should end early Sunday morning as high pressure begins to build over the region. Easter Sunday will turn out to be a somewhat cloudy day with occasional peaks of sunshine. It will be a chilly Easter, though. Temperatures will only reach the mid 40s here in the Valley.

A disturbance sliding south of us along the lower Ohio Valley Sunday night might just track far enough north to graze portions of east-central Ohio with some snow. The models agree on the storm but they disagree on the exact track. The GFS model (shown here) is the only model that brings snow showers with this system north of I-70.

I’ve kept snow probabilities out of the forecast for now but I’ll keep an eye on this over the weekend for any potential for snow showers in the Valley. My current thinking keeps precipitation south of I-70.

 

NEXT WEEK
Monday brings a sunnier day and with the flow shifting around to the southwest, temperatures will shoot back up to around 50 degrees.

Modeling has started to come into better agreement with the next system tracking out of the Plains Monday night into Tuesday. This system will spread rain showers across east-central Ohio along a warm front beginning Monday night. Showers will continue through much of Tuesday but temperatures will warm considerably behind the front. Afternoon temps in the 60 degree range are likely here in the Valley.

Chances for rain will decrease early Wednesday morning behind a cold front. There could be a few snow showers mix in as colder air wraps in behind the front early. Temperatures on Wednesday will fall back to the 40s once again behind the front.

ARE THERE ANY SIGNS OF CONSISTENT WARM TEMPERATURES?
Many of us are wondering… When are spring temperatures going to arrive? I can’t answer that for certain, but guidance from both the European and GFS ensemble models signal that true spring temperatures may not arrive until mid April.

That leaves us with at least two more weeks yet of chilly spring temperatures as we start April. Keep in mind, though, that chilly is relative. Sure, temperatures might remain below average for the first half of April. But at least it doesn’t mean arctic cold temperatures like we see in January.

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