Friday will start out decently across east-central Ohio but our weather will take a downhill slide through the day. Low pressure over Wisconsin this morning will slowly drift southeast and sink through Ohio through the weekend. This system will keep the threat for occasional showers and storms in our area through the weekend as it creeps southeast.
Computer models continue to have some problems agreeing on today’s weather and how it may play out. The morning model runs hint at the possibility for two rounds of showers and storms today.
The first round may develop in response to a warm front lifting through the region early in the afternoon. Dew points will come up behind the warm front and that may add to instability during the late afternoon and early evening.
The short range hi-res model shows showers and thunderstorms developing west of Ohio this morning. Much higher instability will exist in southern Indiana and already this morning we’re seeing seeds of storm development. The line of storms will advance eastward making its way east into our area late this afternoon – weakening as they enter a more stable airmass in east-central Ohio.
Here’s how the short-range high resolution model plays out the radar today through 2:00 AM. Notice the two distinct rounds of activity:
The bottom line for all of this is we will likely see two periods of showers and storms this afternoon and into the early evening – the first round around 3:00 PM followed by the second round at around 8:00/9:00 PM.
While today’s storms will be intense to our west and southwest, they should weaken as they move into our area. A lot will depend on those early afternoon thunderstorms.
A few storms could still be borderline strong to severe here with gusty wind and hail but these would be isolated cells. Those elevated dew points today mean there is a good bit of moisture for storms to tap in to. Some areas might also see heavy downpours. The Storm Prediction Center outlines this scenario pretty well in today’s outlook.
Occasional showers and thunderstorms will continue overnight and Saturday as the low advances east and south pumping moisture into the region. I don’t think it will rain all day tomorrow, but scattered showers and storms will be around from time to time. Winds look at little gusty with the low inching closer to the region. The odds for any severe weather is fairly limited.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES
Our slow-moving low pressure system will continue to creep along making its way into southern Ohio by Sunday. While Sunday has trended drier in recent model runs, we can still expect a few scattered showers and storms as long as this system remains in the region.
Extensive cloud cover, as well as occasional showers and thunderstorms, will hold temperatures back through the period.
It doesn’t look good if you’re hoping for dry weather. The wet pattern will continue even though low pressure over Ohio continues to move south. Unfortunately, a second low develops over central Canada early next week putting us squarely between two low pressure systems. With this setup, there is little hope of seeing much of a change in our pattern of scattered showers and storms through midweek.