A stalled frontal boundary will be the focus for daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the first half of the weekend. The remnants of Gordon will then bring periods of torrential rain to the region through the start of next week.
Confidence continues to increase in the potential for heavy rainfall over the weekend associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon. All of the overnight model runs are beginning to agree and show very similar solutions regarding the track and position of heaviest rainfall.
WHAT WE KNOW TODAY
While a stalled frontal boundary to our south will bring periods of scattered rain showers today and Saturday. Amounts from these will be light – generally totaling a half inch or less in most neighborhoods.
Clouds will thicken as low pressure associated with Gordon approaches through the day Saturday. The heaviest rainfall will hold off until Saturday night and continue through Sunday night as deep tropical moisture spreads into the region.
What is yet to be determined is the exact areas of the heaviest rainfall. Rest assured – everyone will see periods of heavy tropical rain at times, especially on Sunday. There will be occasional breaks from time to time, but when it does rain, it will rain heavy.
Estimates at this time are 3 to 5 inches over an approximately 36-hour period. Some areas could go higher. Flooding is a threat – especially if your area is prone to flooding. River and stream flooding is also a serious threat.
In addition to the heavy rain, some stronger wind gusts in the 30 to 35 mph range may be possible.
Heavy rainfall, flooding and flash flooding are a serious threat. NWSWPC has highlighted all of east-central Ohio for a Moderate Risk for flood. A Flood Watch is likely to be issued today.
Changes to the forecast are likely as more recent data comes in and I’ll post updates throughout the weekend.