Sunny, warm and muggy weekend; Florence remnants arrive early next week

Building high pressure over the central Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will maintain dry, warm, and humid conditions Friday through the weekend. Rain from the remnants of Florence will reach east-central Ohio early next week.

There have been no changes in the short term forecast since yesterday. High pressure at the surface, as well as the upper levels, will keep skies mostly clear today and through the weekend. Temperatures will be warm and the humidity will keep relatively high.

Thursday’s temperatures overperformed a bit and there is no reason to suspect that highs today would be any different. With nighttime temperatures near the dew point, expect areas of fog to develop once again and remain into Saturday morning.

The pattern of warm and humid days will continue through the weekend as high pressure migrates eastward into New England.

FLORENCE REMNANTS
Hurricane Florence, now battering the southeast coast with heavy rain and wind, will continue to meander in the south today. The upper level ridge of high pressure will begin to weaken Sunday night giving Florence a path to the north. While there is still uncertainty about the exact track that Florence will take, the major models are coming together with similar solutions.

GFS MODEL depiction of low pressure system associated with remnants of Hurricane Florence on Monday morning. This is but ONE model idea. Other models are similar but differences remain as to timing and placement of the storm.

Today’s forecast will be similar to earlier ideas. Rain from Florence should begin to creep into the east-central Ohio region Monday morning. The bulk of the rain associated with Florence will occur Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

As for rain amounts, the system is still over the Carolinas and several days out so exact amounts are pretty difficult to track down days away. And, any definate rain forecast amounts this far out are suspect. But, as it interacts with land over the weekend, Florence will weaken considerably by the time it reaches our area.

With that in mind, this still doesn’t look like a big impact event here. Yes, it will rain. And, as with any tropical system, rain may be moderate to heavy at times. But Florence remnants will move along fairly quickly through the region and any periods of heavier rainfall are expected to be brief.

The modeling for rain amounts has been pretty consistent over the last few days with a quick inch or maybe 2 inches with Florence.

We will also have some breezy conditions as the system crosses the region. Not a lot, but some. Current projections show winds at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts 20 to 30 MPH. The gustiest winds will occur Monday morning and afternoon.

Keep in mind that there are still some variations with this early outlook – especially with regards to timing and track of the storm. Forecasts this far out are likely to change abruptly as Florence turns north. But at this time (Friday morning) this is a pretty good take on what we can expect.

The ground is soggy and river/streams are running high yet from Gordon’s rain last weekend. Flood potential will need to be watched closely should the forecast rain totals go much higher than two inches of rain from Florence next week.

Florence, along with its rain, will quickly depart by Tuesday night as it gets pushed off to the northeast.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
High pressure will build Wednesday in the wake of Florence and bring a return to sunny conditions through Friday. Temperatures will be cooler for the last two work days of the week with afternoon highs in the 77/78 degree range.

Seasonal temperatures are projected to continue in the long range.

 

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