Isolated showers are possible through the end of the week under a weak trough of low pressure. Rainfall from the remnant low of Hurricane Florence is expected over the Upper Ohio Valley Region early next week.
Even with high pressure extending into the Great lakes, ample low-level moisture has kept the clouds going for the last few days. Today will be no exception. Areas of fog and stratus clouds overhead will continue through the rest of the morning. The stratus should mix out some and we should see breaks in the clouds this afternoon allowing partly sunny conditions.
Moisture will redevelop this afternoon as a weak disturbance crosses. A spotty shower will be possible with this feature. And, with just a touch of instability present, a rumble of thunder wouldn’t be surprising either. Anything today would be an isolated instance.
As for temperatures today, we will continue the warming trend and afternoon highs should top out in the low 80s.
Friday looks like a near copy of today – Again, a slight chance for an afternoon shower or rumble of thunder. Temperatures will warm to the mid-80s.
It will also be quite humid the next couple of days. And, it will remain muggy right on through the weekend.
An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the Midwest on Saturday. The ridge will temporarily block Florence and keep her bottled up along the southeast coast through most of our weekend. High pressure at the surface will keep us here in east-central Ohio sunny, warm, and dry.
Most of our yards and gardens are still fairly soggy from last weekend’s rain but with the sunshine and warm temperatures expected this weekend, it’ll be a good time to catch up with yard chores.
Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will also cooperate. Saturday will be the warmer day of the weekend with afternoon highs around 84. Sunday looks just a little cooler at around 82 degrees.
At 9:00 AM, Hurricane Florence was located about 170 miles east-southeast of Wilmington, NC with a maximum wind of 110 MPH. It is traveling northwest at around 12 MPH and is forecast to make landfall early Friday morning. While the wind has weakened some overnight, Florence remains a very formidable and powerful hurricane. Storm surge and rainfall will still result in catastrophic flooding for the Carolinas.
Weather conditions along the southeast coast will deteriorate through today as Florence approaches. The center of the storm looks to make landfall tonight near Wilmington, NC.
There remains some disagreement in the modeling as to the effects Florence may have on east-central Ohio early next week. The upper-level ridge of high pressure that will set up over the weekend will drift to the east on Monday. As the ridge moves east, the remnants of Florence will have a path to track north-northeast and into the Ohio Valley. Differences exist between the models with regards to the exact track and timing. With these two factors, forecasts for our area at this time are uncertain.
With uncertainty in mind, we can pretty much count on at least some rain from Florence in the Monday through Tuesday time frame. As with any tropical system, rain could be moderate or heavy at times.
The difference in our area with Florence, as opposed to last week’s Gordon, will be the speed at which it travels through our region. Unlike the slow forward movement of the storm while along the southeast coast, Florence remnants will move through the Ohio Valley fairly quickly. A faster storm means moderate to heavy rain will not sit over one spot for long periods. Thus, less total rainfall.
Details regarding timing and track will come into better model agreement over the next several days and the forecast will improve. But, the bottom line is that, yes, we will see some rain. But, it’s unlikely that we will get as much as we did last weekend with Gordon.
What about the wind? I mentioned model differences earlier and the GFS model is the fastest in bringing the storm into our area. It’s also the windiest. While we can expect some gusty winds with this system, they are more likely to remain below severe criteria. It will get breezy, but nothing extreme is expected.
High pressure will build on Wednesday in the wake of Florence remnants to bring the sun and dry weather back to the region.