The remnant low that was once Hurricane Florence has moved to the east this morning and is currently located over central Pennsylvania. Official rainfall totals at New Philadelphia from the system tallied 1.02 inches, according to NWS Pittsburgh. That’s pretty much in line with the forecast of one inch that I put out on Sunday.
Florence remnants will continue northeast toward the mid-Atlantic and New England today. The rain associated with the weakening system has pushed off to our east. It will be a slow process but our weather across east-central Ohio will gradually improve as we go through the rest of the day.
The moisture Florence left behind has resulted in fog development early this morning. This should lift by mid-morning.
Today will be a dry day across the Valley. Clouds will gradually break through the day and we will even get into some sunshine this afternoon. As conditions brighten, temperatures this afternoon will warm to the low 80s.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
A weak cold front will approach this evening from the northwest and cross east-central Ohio tonight with little fanfare. The front will stall to our south tomorrow as high pressure builds over the region for Wednesday. I expect a mostly sunny day with temperatures a couple of degrees cooler with highs near 80.
That stalled frontal boundary to the south will lift north Wednesday night as a warm front. Thursday will be a much different day with temperatures warming to the mid to upper 80s and rising dew points will bring the humidity back. A strong pressure gradient could bring breezy winds on Thursday but it will depend mostly on how far north that warm front reaches.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND
Enjoy these mid-week nice weather days. Our weather will turn more active Friday as a strong cold front advances east for a Friday crossing. Friday will start out warm and sunny but clouds, along with odds for showers and storms, will increase ahead of the front in the afternoon.
We will need to keep an eye on the potential for some stronger storms. Instability will not be all that impressive but any storms that happen to build high enough could pull some gusty wind down to the surface.
So far we’ve been pretty lucky with the weather for Friday night high school football. Maybe not so much this week. Rain, and quite possibly some thunderstorms will likely impact football this week.
The Autumnal Equinox is at 9:54 PM EDT on Saturday and it will feel more like autumn. Cooler air from the north will migrate in over the region to bring cooler temperatures to the Valley Saturday and Sunday. Highs will only reach the low 70s. Differences in modeling solutions for the weekend bring some doubts about our weather. That frontal boundary will settle somewhere along the Ohio River Saturday night through Sunday and depending on how far south will impact us here in the Valley. Farther south will mean mostly dry conditions but if the front meanders just a few miles north, showers will enter the picture.
For today I’ve kept some odds for showers Saturday night and Sunday until the models get a better handle on things.
LONGER RANGE
Above average temperatures are in the 8 to 14 day temperature outlook, but we also need to remember that this is mid-September. Above average doesn’t translate to 85 degrees any longer. Our daytime high temperature averages are in the mid-70s in mid-September. Those average highs will continue downward through the end of the month.
So while the temperature outlook map has a warm look for central Ohio counties, it still reflects a more sutumn-like temperature pattern through the end of the month.
