Welcome to our first full autumn day! For many, this is the best weather of the year – temperatures are cooler and the air is generally drier here during the fall. Unlike spring, we usually have less rain and thundery weather in the fall than we do during the spring.
Our weather today will be quiet and calm as high pressure remains overhead. Despite some high cirrus clouds spreading from the south, the general trend will be decreasing clouds and dry conditions. This afternoon should be gorgeous with afternoon temperatures should be similar to yesterday with a high around 70 degrees.
A warm front will lift north through Ohio on Monday. Ample Gulf moisture will spread over east-central Ohio increasing our odds for showers during the morning. While a spotty shower will be possible in the morning, showers look to be a good bet around lunchtime here in the Valley.
We should see a break in showers Tuesday morning and early afternoon but a cold front will sink through the region once again raising our prospects for showers and thunderstorms across the area. Current modeling brings active weather into the Valley mainly in the late afternoon through evening period.
Upper-level shear and instability will be sufficient enough to produce some strong to severe storms in eastern Ohio. Damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. Heavy rainfall is also a possibility given the abundant moisture available.
Tuesday’s temperatures will likely be the warmest of the week with afternoon highs near 75 degrees – cooler again on Wednesday behind the front.
Residual showers will persist on Wednesday and all told we should end up with one to two inches of rain through the period.
High pressure builds overhead for Thursday bringing a return to dry weather. Low pressure will drag another cold front across the state but there is not much moisture with this feature and rain does not look likely. It could be a bit breezy along the cold front.
Ensemble temperature forecasts indicate a brief warm up through the weekend, but a cooler than average trend will generally continue next week.