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Weather Edge for Tuesday, December 4, 2018

After a few morning flurries, dry weather is expected today as weak high pressure builds in. Periodic snow chances are expected again tonight through late in the week with a series of crossing disturbances.

There will probably be some light snow at times mainly during the morning due to lake enhancement. Otherwise, clouds will dominate today despite weak high pressure building this afternoon. The best odds of us seeing some breaks in the clouds will be during the afternoon. It will be chilly too with afternoon temperatures around ten degrees colder than average.

SIMULATED RADAR from the hi-res model shows isolated to scattered light snow showers can be expected at times. Odds for light snow showers will continue tonight with light accumulation in spots.

A slightly better chance for some light snow will be tonight as a weak disturbance crosses east-central Ohio Approaches and quickly exits by Wednesday early in the afternoon. Moisture is limited with this feature so there shouldn’t be much in the way of accumulation. We may see a dusting on the grass and on cold surfaces like your vehicle and deck but most areas will end up with under an inch at best.

Thursday looks like the best day for snow showers as low pressure crosses the Great Lakes dragging a cold front across the region. Ample moisture along the front and cold temperatures aloft pretty much guarantee snow. Snow showers with this one will be a little heavier but the front will move through quickly. I think we could see a quick inch in spots. The main roads should do fine but untreated roads may see some slick spots.

GFS MODEL for late day Thursday. Snow showers will be likely with the crossing of a cold front.

Temperatures will warm above freezing briefly ahead of the cold front, then head down again Thursday night.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
Mostly dry and cold weather will move in with a large area of high pressure on Friday. While sunshine will occasionally show through breaks in the clouds, temperatures will remain below freezing for the afternoon high. It will still be quite cold again on Saturday but the sunshine will at least make it tolerable. Sunday continues our streak of dry weather but I expect more cloudiness. Temperatures will also be a bit warmer with highs in the mid-30s.

BIG WINTER STORM UPDATE
The much-hyped winter storm that blew up on social media last week is just now coming into focus for the weekend. I’ve been tracking this system since last week and as expected, things have changed a lot.

While the storm will bring significant snow to the Central Appalachians, modeling continues to track the storm well south of the Ohio River over the weekend.

GFS MODEL for Sunday evening

Of course, there is still plenty of time for the track to shift, but the trend over the last several days has kept the storm system well to our south. The high pressure system to our east that will bring dry weather to our area will help push the storm south – essentially guiding it away from east-central Ohio.

It must be noted that computer models are just that – ideas. And, the makings of the storm won’t be fully sampled until tomorrow (Wedesday, 12/05). This system still bears watching over the next several days. A shift to the north is not impossible. Today’s data suggests that it will bring ice and snow to the Appalachians and the Carolinas into Virginia, but at this time, looks unlikely to have an impact locally.

A quick look at the longer range shows the cold temperatures arriving with that front on Thursday will stay through the weekend. A trend toward milder temperatures will set up next week.

These warmer temperatures may persist through mid-month before transitioning back to a more typical December temperature pattern around Christmas.

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