Isolated showers will be possible later this afternoon mainly south of I-70. The early part of the work week will feature a slow warming trend, with scattered showers and storms possible by Tuesday as the front returns north. Remnants of Barry will bring rain and humid weather to the region mid-week.
A weak front moved southward through east-central Ohio early this morning. It will stall out well to our south and remain nearly stationary today. Showers and storms will develop along this boundary but they should remain south of I-70.
Sunshine will dominate today under high pressure. Temperatures this afternoon will max out in the mid-80s. On the plus side, dew points will remain in the low-60s thanks to the somewhat drier air behind this morning’s front so even though we will have a warm day today, the humidity will not be an issue this afternoon.
With that drier air in place, calm winds, and clearing skies, temperatures will cool off to near 60° pre-dawn Monday. Patchy fog is likely to develop before 8:00 AM for the morning commute. Otherwise, It will be another day of sunshine on Monday with afternoon highs in the upper-80s.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
The remnants of Barry will begin to travel north along the Mississippi River Monday/Monday night. As it moves north it will push the hung-up cold front to our south northward as a warm front. Moisture will be limited but we will need to bring in a slight chance for a shower or storm into the forecast Monday night and Tuesday as the front approaches and lifts north through the region. Tuesday will be cloudier and we will begin to notice the humidity as dew points start to inch up to the mid/upper 60s. With afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s, heat indices will again reach the 90°+ area.
As the remnants of Barry move closer to east-central Ohio tropical moisture increases Tuesday night through Wednesday night. While odds for showers and thunderstorms will gradually increase Tuesday night and Wednesday, warm air aloft will keep showers and storms scattered. By Wednesday night, however, the rain will be able to cover a broader area. Expect a wet night with widespread rain.
Barry remnants will get caught up in the westerlies and this will help push the rain east of our area on Thursday. Rain chances should slowly decrease through the day and we may even see some afternoon sun.
While it will be wet through the period, temperatures will remain above average with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.
HOW MUCH RAIN CAN WE EXPECT FROM BARRY?
It’s been a wet summer so far in east-central Ohio and there are concerns of additional rain from Barry this week. Today’s modeling indicates we may be in for a soaking rain, but the system is forecast to move through fairly quickly. This will help keep the total amount of rainfall manageable.
Current projections from NWSWPC keep rainfall totals to just under an inch. This could of course change, but all indications are that if the rain from Barry can remain under an inch or so, problems with flooding should remain a low threat.
I will continue to monitor future outlooks and modeling for any upward changes, but at this time, rain from Barry should not cause any big flooding issues locally.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
Basically, hot and humid weather will set up towards the end of the week and persist through the weekend as an upper-level ridge (heat dome) builds into the central portion of the US and shifts east.
Friday through Sunday will bring afternoon temperatures in the low-90s and dew points will climb into the 70s. If you’re not a fan of tropical-like weather conditions, you’re going to be miserable. Heat indices in the upper 90s to 100° are possible.
With such a warm and humid airmass in place, expect periodic thunderstorms just about anytime. Nights will be warm and muggy as well, so don’t expect much relief overnight. Current projects show that the heat and humidity will continue through the end of the month.