Dry weather Wednesday and Thursday before rain returns to end the week

Dry conditions and a warming trend is expected before precipitation and cooler conditions return at the end of the week. Cooler temperatures will continue through the weekend with showers Saturday afternoon transitioning to snow overnight.

High pressure crossing the Great Lakes region will keep precipitation at bay for a while. Warm air overhead this morning has trapped moisture in the mid-levels allowing for patchy fog and overcast skies. This will gradually mix out as we get through the day today allowing for some sun and broken clouds this afternoon.

Temperatures, however, will remain below average again today topping out in the mid-40s this afternoon.

Dry weather will continue tonight and Thursday morning. Temperatures will warm a bit tomorrow with a southerly flow ahead of the next system approaching from the west. Slight chances for rain Thursday afternoon will increase during the evening as the system creeps closer and rain will become likely in the Valley Thursday night into Friday morning.

EUROPEAN MODEL depiction of precipitation type Thursday evening.

South winds will pick up Thursday night as the system’s cold front approaches the region. Gusts could reach 20 mph occasionally. Rain will quickly end around mid-morning as cooler drier air flows in behind the front.

Temperatures tomorrow should get about ten degrees or so warmer than today and remain relatively mild Thursday night ahead of the front. The cold front comes through Friday morning. The day’s high temperature will occur in the morning and remain stagnant or dropping slightly during the rest of the day.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK
We should see a brief dry spell but cloudy weather locally Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Low pressure forming in the Gulf region will trek towards the northeast into the Pittsburgh area on Saturday. Rain showers will gradually increase again Saturday and become likely locally Saturday afternoon. Then, rain will transition to snow briefly Saturday night as the system pulls away and colder air wraps in behind.

EUROPEAN MODEL: Snow showers wrap around our low pressure system Saturday night into early Sunday as the system pushes off to the east.

Look for dry weather to return on Sunday along with the occasional peak of sunshine. Temperatures over the weekend will remain colder than we should be. Afternoon highs will generally be in the low-40s with nighttime lows around 30°.

LONG RANGE: LEADING UP TO THANKSGIVING
High pressure will keep dry conditions locally Monday and Tuesday along with a gradual warming trend. Afternoon temperatures should reach the mid-40s Monday. Tuesday’s high looks to return to the low-50s.

Confidence on the mid to late-week storm system that may develop next week remains low at this point. Still, the progression of this feature bears close attention because of its potential to interrupt travel during the holiday. The two primary models -Euro and GFS – continue to be words apart with regards to the track of the system as it progresses east. The GFS model tracks the system through the upper Great Lakes while the European brings it along the Ohio River Valley. Model differences such as this preclude any chances of a decent forecast.

EUROPEAN MODEL idea of a storm system moving into the Ohio Valley early next Wednesday. Lots of uncertainty exists between models and model runs regarding the track and intensity of the low at this time. Depending on how this plays out there is a potential for wintry weather somewhere around the Ohio River Valley leading up to Thanksgiving.

It does, however, look fairly certain that a strong storm system will develop and move east during the second half of next week. Its track north or south will have significant impacts on precipitation types and other details that might impact east-central Ohio. All we can do at this point is monitor future model runs to see if and when any kind of agreement between model solutions occurs.

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