Colder on Wednesday; Warm temperatures and soaking rain likely as we head into the weekend

Since the weather has been uneventful the last couple of days, I thought I would take some time to look at our winter weather so far this season. Snow fans are disappointed in our lack of cold and snow so far. Temperatures, since the solstice have been running well above normal with only two days, where we’ve seen below normal afternoon high temperatures.

Generally speaking, this warm pattern looks to continue into the mid-range at least. Sure, there will be some cold days now and then, but overall temperatures are forecast to remain warmer than average through mid-month.

A good example of a quick-hitting shot of cold will come on Wednesday. A cold front will sink through tonight into Wednesday morning We won’t see much if anything in the way of snow locally, but temperatures on Wednesday will be much colder. Afternoon highs won’t get much more than 30° or so and a blustery west wind will keep wind chills mainly in the teens.

Snow showers associated with the front will not be an issue locally. The majority of snow will keep mostly in the snow belt counties of Ohio and location to our east.

NAM3km (North American Model) snowfall projection through Wednesday evening.

Skies will clear out Wednesday night as high pressure builds overhead. Temperatures will also begin to warm back to the mid-40s Thursday afternoon as that high sifts east to the Virginia coast setting up a nice southerly flow.

WIDESPREAD RAIN RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND
After a relatively warm Thursday night our weather turns more active as two low pressure systems impact the region over the weekend. This is a good news/bad news situation for us locally.

First, the good news. It’s going to be warm. Very warm if you consider that it’s January. Temperatures on Friday will likely reach the low-50s. Saturday will be even warmer with highs in the low-60s.

The bad news is that the mild temperatures will be accompanied by rain – potentially, a lot of rain too boot.

The first low pressure system is expected to travel northeast across the upper Great Lakes into Ontario on Friday. This system will drag a cold front across down to the lower Great Lakes where it will hang up. Meanwhile, a second storm system in the deep south will move northeast along our stalled cold front. This setup will bring an influx of warm moist Gulf air into central Ohio capable of producing not only some very warm temperatures on Saturday but also a lot of rain. Depending on the exact location of the cold front and the southern low. significant and prolonged rain will be possible Friday evening through Saturday.

NWSWPC RAINFALL ESTIMATES Friday night through Sunday afternoon. Rainfall of 2″ – 3″ will be possible locally.

There are some modeling issues with regards to the exact track and timing of the system and this will have implications on exactly where the heaviest rain occurs. Confidence is high, however, for an extended period of rain occurring Friday and Saturday. While all the models indicate quite a bit of rain, it will be spread out over the course of 48 hours or so. Still, this will need to be watched closely for the potential of flooding.

Our weather settles down on Sunday as the system pulls off to the east. A cold front associated with the system will cross the region Saturday night/Sunday morning so temperatures on Sunday will drop back to the mid-40s.

NEXT WEEK
Ensemble models indicate that while Sunday will cool somewhat behind the weekend rain, temperatures will remain well above average into next week. Sorry snow lovers, but it is just not looking all that good for snow in the near future locally.

As always, if the weather is important to you and your plans for the day, keep up with the latest forecast updates.

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