Local timing for the thunderstorms and high wind expected later today and tonight

Posted Thursday 9:15 AM, March 25, 2021

There are not many changes needed in the forecast for today and Friday. The bulk of our weather will be quiet especially this morning and early afternoon. Clouds will lower and thicken as the day progresses but we should see no weather issues until mid/late afternoon in the Valley area.

Showers and thunderstorms will become more prevalent during the second half of the day as a warm front approaches and lifts through east-central Ohio. The air overhead is very dry at present. It will take some time for the moisture to overcome all this dry air before we see much rain or hear any thunder later today. Even then, showers/storms will be scattered about during the afternoon and evening.

NAM3k MODEL: Expect scattered showers and perhaps some thunder

I am not expecting any storms this afternoon or evening to be strong. There could be some wind gusts but there is no indication that gusts would reach severe criteria.

Chances for a round of more substantial thunderstorms will increase after sunset tonight as a plume of heavy moisture lifts north. This will likely be our best opportunity to see a feisty storm – say from about 10:00 PM to around midnight.

NAM3k MODEL: 1:00 AM Friday

While the threat is pretty low, I can’t rule out strong wind gusts in any of these storms that come through tonight. Wind or not, many of us will probably be awakened by thunder.

Conditions for strong to severe storms won’t be ideal but there is a small potential that a storm or two could get a little rowdy. The SPC has all of our area flagged for a Marginal Risk (Level 1 on a scale of 1 to 5) for a severe thunderstorm. Strong wind gusts is the primary threat.

The larger impact from high winds will arrive AFTER the rain and storms exit the region late tonight – probably after 2:00 AM or so.

As of 9:00 AM, ALL of eastern Ohio remains under a High Wind Watch. The National Weather Service upgraded the Watch to a Warning in western Ohio counties early this morning. I would not be too surprised to see the Warning extend eastward at some point this afternoon.

Regardless of whether we end up in a Warning or not, the wind late tonight and early Friday morning will get serious just about everywhere in Ohio. The area of high wind will travel from southwest to northeast early Friday. Here in the Valley, we will start to see increasing wind speeds around 4:00 AM. Winds will continue to strengthen as they travel through the area through sunrise. The strongest wind locally looks to be from 7:00 AM to around 10:00 AM.

Winds will start to noticeably diminish after lunch time Friday and continue to subside through early evening as the core of high wind shifts off to the east.

This will be some unusually serious wind. Gusts could very well be in the 50 mph to 60 mph range as the heaviest wind field area moves through east-central Ohio Friday morning. We don’t often see winds this high here and I highly suggest you take some time today to secure anything on your property that can become airborne.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE POWER OUTAGES so charge up your devices today and tonight and get the flashlights and generators ready to go.

I’ll have updates as they develop throughout the day here on the TuscWeather.net website and app. You can also catch my quick local weather updates throughout the day on Twitter (@tuscwx). Be safe out there.

2 thoughts on “Local timing for the thunderstorms and high wind expected later today and tonight”

  1. And don’t forget to fill water buckets so if your power does go out, you can still flush the toilets.

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