Showers and storms likely over the next couple of days

Posted Tuesday AM, April 27, 2021

A warm front located along the Lake Erie shoreline will remain nearly stationary today setting the stage for an influx of warm air flowing in a strong southerly breeze. Temperatures across the Tuscarawas Valley will soar to the low-80s this afternoon under a mostly sunny sky. Normally we would expect daytime highs around 67° for late April in New Philadelphia.

It will turn breezy today as well with south winds in the 7 to 15 mph range. Gusts can be around 20 mph or so through the afternoon.

A series of low pressure systems will travel along our stalled front to the north over the next couple of days. As these systems move through the region we will see increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday here in the Valley.

WEDNESDAY weather map

Currently it looks as if Wednesday will be mostly dry – at least to start the day. Coverage of showers and storms will be spotty in the afternoon but coverage will likely fill in during the late afternoon and evening. The late afternoon and evening will also bring the best time for thunder.

While instability doesn’t appear to be overly impressive there does appear to be sufficient upper-level shear to bring a low threat for a strong thunderstorm. The main concern would be strong wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center has our area at a Marginal Risk (1 on a scale of 1-5) for severe thunderstorms for late Wednesday.

SPC DAY 2 (Wednesday) OUTLOOK: Marginal(low) Risk

A cold front will travel southeast through eastern Ohio Wednesday night then transition to a warm front and lift back to the north on Thursday. I would expect all of this activity to bring us decent odds of widespread rain coverage with a few embedded thunderstorms. In short, Thursday looks to be a washout.

WIDESPREAD showers and embedded thunderstorms are likely on Thursday. The higher odds for a strong thunderstorm will be mainly along and south of I-70.

There can be a lingering shower into Friday morning but the general trend for the last day of April will be improving weather. High pressure starts to build back in over the region bringing in drier air and clearing out the clouds.

All totaled, we will likely get a fairly decent slug of rain over the next 72 hours. It’s been dry so we could use a good soaking at this point. Most of the modeling supports the idea of an inch to 1.5-inches of rain can be expected. The bulk of the rain will occur Wednesday night and Thursday.

NWS TOTAL RAINFALL through Friday evening suggests 1″ – 1.5″ of rain could fall over the next few days.

Temperatures will cool some Friday and Saturday but we look to stay dry and see a return to mostly sunny weather locally. Friday will be another breezy day. By Sunday, temperatures will recover back to the low-70s. A couple of upper-level disturbances may slide across the region Sunday and Monday which could bring a shower or two. At this point in time, it’s a bit iffy for anything definite so we’ll need to keep a slight chance for rain in the extended period forecast for now.

Have a great day and be safe out there.



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