Posted March 12, 2024
Note: The winter report covers the meteorological winter season – December, January, and February. Astronomical winter runs until the spring equinox on March 20.
The climate stats are in and, while I had a good feeling the 2023/24 winter season would be warmer than normal, I surely didn’t consider it having the potential to break any temperature records. I was wrong.
This past winter will go down in the record books as the warmest winter on record in New Philadelphia. Both high and low temperatures came in well above normal here this past winter beating out last year’s highs and lows. This makes the second year in a row where we’ve experienced record-breaking winter warmth.
Precipitation-wise, we came in just slightly above average thanks to a wetter-than-normal January. The total snow in our area was about half of what we would normally expect to see.
If we calculate the mean average temperature for the entire season it comes out to 37.3° or one-tenth of a degree warmer than last winter. A tenth of a degree isn’t much but it’s enough to make it the warmest on record.
So, I guess there are two ways of looking at this. If you are the type that enjoys snow, this winter was a real dud. However, those who detest snow are probably very thankful for the warm winter and the low amounts of snow.
The lack of snowfall, and thus the lack of spring snowmelt, will also mean less of a potential for spring flooding when the spring rains arrive. Area streams and the Tusky will have higher odds of normal or below-normal streamflow through spring rains with no snowpack to melt.
GRADING MY WINTER FORECAST
If you are a regular reader you probably read the winter forecast for our area that I published back in November. In it, I leaned toward a warmer-than-average December and January. I also thought that February would be snowy, stormy, and colder than average. Everything worked out well in December and January but February’s outlook turned out to be a complete flop. I was two-thirds right.
WHAT’S THIS MEAN FOR SPRING?
Since the winter season was so warm we will probably see an early start to spring by a couple of weeks. We already see trees starting to leaf out in our local area and that’s due primarily to the unseasonably warm temperatures. And, according to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, temperatures have pretty decent odds (40%-50%) of remaining warmer than normal during the three months of meteorological spring.
Of course that doesn’t mean that every day will be warm and mild. We all know from experience that spring is a transitional period – especially during March and April. We’ll likely see occasional bouts of colder temperatures. Winter doesn’t give up easily. And while March started out strong, April and May do have a cooler look and feel.
Because spring is the planting season, rain is just as important as temperature. The CPC says that precipitation in our area should be around average leaning toward a slight chance (30%-40%) of more rain than average.
The last freeze day in spring always marks the start of the growing season and I’m often asked when that might occur. As you might expect, it varies but generally, the last freeze can be expected around the latter part of April. The chart below lists all of the last freeze dates in New Phila (at the airport) during the last 25 years. It’s important to note, though, that these dates can vary depending on your location. If you live in a sheltered area or valley, for instance, these dates can be later.
Spring also brings the start of severe thunderstorm season. I’ll have more to write about that next month. Thanks for taking the time to recap our Tuscarawas Valley Winter Wrap-up. And thanks for supporting our area’s only weather information resource. – Joe
