It’s true. We’ve been stuck in a cooler and wetter weather pattern lately here in east-central Ohio. So far this May, we’ve seen only 11 days where our temperatures have been at or above normal. The remaining 12 days have been chillier than normal. Currently, our temperatures around Memorial Day run around 75° to 77°. We might see temperatures around 70° to 72° here on Memorial Day (Monday).
Ive seen comments on our social media pages lately – mostly Facebook – where some folks are already speculating about how our summer might shape up. The majority of the comments are from those who feel our summer here will be wet and chilly. I don’t know for sure, but I’m guessing they’re making that assumption based on this recent string lousy weather days we’ve been having this week.
Our perception of recent weather is not really something we can rely on with much confidence. And, in reality, it’s a mistake to base a long-range prediction based on a handful of days where the weather is not so great. It’s only the latter part of May. Summer doesn’t even arrive until June 21.
It looks like we will begin a warming trend over the long holiday weekend that will continue into next week and beyond. It’s likely to take a temporary break midweek next week with some rain forecast to move into the area again. The warming is likely to resume as we head into next weekend.
But, what about the naysayers – those who believe the entire summer is going to be a bust?
Based on what I’ve been seeing, our summer will be just fine. NOAA’s NWS Climate Prediction Service agrees. They’re saying while it probably won’t be a scorcher, summer temperatures as a whole a leaning toward a slightly warmer than average regime.
As a matter of fact, according to the CPC, it won’t be cooler than normal anywhere in the continental US this summer. Most of the ensemble computer models support this line of thinking.
What about rain and the thinking it’ll be a washed out soggy summer?
Again, according to the CPC, the forecast indicates precipitation will run close to or just slightly wetter than average. Since we were in some degree of drought last summer, this is good news for local farms and gardens.
Like all seasonal outlooks, expect minor changes and touch-ups in these long-range forecasts with time as we move forward. But, for now, it appears the Facebook weather naysayers have it all wrong. Generally speaking, our summer looks just fine.
- Joe
