Broad Canadian high pressure brings dry conditions and decreasing clouds today. Temperatures will remain colder than normal despite the sunshine, thanks to the frigid Canadian air flowing into the region. Daytime highs today won’t get much warmer than the upper 20s across the area. Skies will remain mainly clear tonight, allowing temperatures to fall to the low teens locally.
Weak low pressure crosses eastward north of Lake Erie on Tuesday. Snow associated with this system will be confined to areas in the northern parts of the state. About all we will notice here in the Tuscarawas Valley will be an increase in cloud cover. The worst-case scenario would bring a few flurries.
Tuesday’s weak clipper will push a warm front through the region in the afternoon, so temperatures on Tuesday will warm above freezing. Winds will also pick up on Tuesday as the system crosses with gusts in the 20 to 30 mph range, becoming likely in the late morning/early afternoon.
After a short break, a stronger system traveling through the central Great Lakes brings better prospects for a mix of precipitation types to our area on Tuesday night and Wednesday. As it stands now (Monday morning), the highest potential for meaningful snowfall appears to be confined to the snow belt counties in northern Ohio. Our area stays firmly in the snow/rain mix at the onset Tuesday night to Wednesday morning before transitioning to all rain Wednesday afternoon.
I do need to mention that there are yet some modelling differences, mainly with the GFS, of a more southerly system track. It’s notable because a track more to the south would bring a higher potential for precipitation to remain as heavy, wet snow instead of rain. If the GFS has the right idea, snow accumulation would become a bigger issue in our area.
I leaned toward the European model solution with this system mainly because it has remained more consistent over the last 36 hours. The bottom line is, however, that snow amounts could change in future forecasts if it turns out the GFS has the right idea.
Gusty winds will once again pick up with Wednesday’s clipper. Gusts could be a bit stronger with this one, with some in the 25 to 35 mph range.
Rain showers on Wednesday evening may change back to snow for a time after sunset, and temperatures fall back toward freezing. Any additional snowfall won’t amount to much before ending as the system pulls away from the area.
THURSDAY – SATURDAY
The longer range modeling continues with cold temperatures and an unsettled weather pattern. In general, another clipper-like system is likely to move through on Friday, bringing yet another round of precipitation back to the Valley. This one may also bring another shot of arctic cold that would push nighttime low temperatures back to single-digit territory over the weekend.
