Thursday and Friday will be uneventful. A cold front will slide through eastern Ohio on Thursday with little fanfare. This front, and the polar air behind it, will bring another period of very cold temperatures on Friday that will likely persist through the weekend and early next week.
The coldest temperatures in our area will occur on Friday night and Saturday. We can expect below-zero air temperatures on Friday night, warming to not much more than the low teens for the daytime high on Saturday.
Along with the cold, it will be breezy. The breeze and the cold will work together, causing wind chill values in the single digits and low teens.
Once the cold arrives behind Thursday’s front, it’ll be in no rush to leave. Much of next week will feature little warmth.
WEEKEND WINTER STORM UPDATE
By now, just about everyone knows that a major winter storm is about to impact a large chunk of the southern US. Our area will likely get some snow on Saturday night and Sunday as the system brushes by to our south.
Today’s data shows a storm track shift to the north, which would result in heavier snow amounts here in east-central Ohio. We will probably get enough snow to shovel and plow, so it’s becoming more likely that there will be more substantial impacts to travel.
Confidence in exact snow amounts is still not quite there. We’ll begin to get a handle on snow amounts in a day or two, but right now, snow amounts from models and apps are not helpful to anyone. There are just too many variables yet. In addition, there exists a lot of model disagreement, which is a pretty normal thing this early in a forecast.
I’ll have a much better idea of how much snow we might be in store for by tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon. By then, the storm will be in range of the high-resolution computer models.
One big consideration: temperatures will be cold enough that we can expect higher-than-normal snow ratios. Normally, we calculate snow amounts using a standard 10:1 ratio, meaning that one inch of rain would equal ten inches of snow. This storm will produce a higher snow-to-liquid ratio – perhaps as high as 20:1.
The bottom line is that this could bring snow amounts that will have considerable impacts in and around our area. There are several factors still in play at this time, but the shift north of the modeled storm track is not a good sign. Sure, it could very well shift back south in future model runs. That would still result in snow, just not as much.
AFTER THE STORM
As mentioned above, temperatures will remain well below normal into next week, so whatever amount of snow we end up with over the weekend will be on the ground for a while. Expect impacts from the storm as well as the cold temperatures to linger into next week.
As always, thanks for relying on the only local weather resource focused on the Tuscarawas Valley for a truly local weather forecast. I’ll continue to post updates with fresh info as we inch closer to the storm. See you soon! – Joe
