Overnight model trends have maintained a northward trend with our weekend winter storm, and it’s becoming more apparent that our area will likely encounter moderate to heavy winter weather impacts over the weekend and early next week.
The largest impacts from the upcoming storm are likely to come from accumulating snowfall, although cold temperatures will also contribute. And, the snow will fall and add up over an extended period of time. This isn’t like a quick-hitting clipper that moves through and brings snow for a few hours. It’s going to snow for a good 24 hours or longer.
On a positive note, since our area will be firmly anchored in the cold side of the storm, precipitation here will be all snow. We won’t be dealing with any rain, sleet, or freezing rain. Those precipitation types will be more of an issue in areas well to our south.
In anticipation of the storm, the National Weather Service issued a Winter Storm Watch that pretty much includes all of Ohio, further indicating that this will be a widespread snow event.
HOW MUCH SNOW?
Now, for the really bad news. Recent model runs have placed the central and southern portions of Ohio at ground zero. Meaning, a swath of what is expected to be the highest snow amounts runs right through the Tuscarawas Valley. Expect snow totals of 8″ – 12″ in any one location. (I wouldn’t be surprised to see more than 12″ in some locations)
Snow will begin Saturday evening and continue at varying rates through late Sunday night into very early Monday morning. Expect the most active and highest snowfall rates during the daytime hours on Sunday. There can be scattered light snow showers/flurries at times on Monday as the storm exits the region.
THE COLD SETTLES IN
One weather feature that’s certain is the cold temperatures that will settle over the region. An arctic air mass spreads into east-central Ohio on Friday and will likely keep temperatures in the Valley well below average to end the month. Wind chills are expected to range from zero to as much as -10°, especially during nighttime and early morning hours.
The cold temperatures over the weekend will be both a blessing and a curse. Colder air means drier air, and the cold, dry air will make for lighter, fluffier snowflakes during the weekend storm. This will at least mean it should be easier to shovel and plow. On the negative side of things, the cold air will favor efficient snow production and much higher snow-to-liquid ratios. Normal 10:1 snow-to-liquid ratios will be higher thanks to the arctic air, perhaps 15:1 or even as high as 20:1. Basically, that means we’ll get more snow from less available moisture.
WHAT COULD CHANGE?
There are a couple of variables that are still in question. For instance, the exact track of the storm is still not nailed down yet. Slight changes to the north can cause an increase in snow amounts, while a shift south would lessen snow amounts somewhat. Adjustments are likely going forward.
As always, thanks for checking in with our area’s only local weather resource. There will be additional updates, I’m sure. Be careful out there! – Joe
What about power outages