Probabilities for any significant snow accumulation in the Tuscarawas Valley continue to decrease with today’s model runs; A pattern shift to unseasonably warm temperatures early in March could bring increasing potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall.
Our first opportunity for snow arrives with an Alberta Clipper late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This could actually start as light rain or drizzle around one or two AM before changing over to wet snow. It will be a fast-mover, and any snowfall and/or flurries should be east of our area before sunrise.
The speed of the clipper and a lack of moisture will keep snow totals in our area from a dusting to maybe a half-inch at best. There is also a sharp cold front associated with this clipper, so temperatures on Sunday will run about 20° colder than Saturday’s mid-50s.
After a chilly but mostly sunny Sunday, an area of low pressure will brush by south of our area Sunday night into Monday. Snowfall from this system will occur mainly on Monday morning with a period of light rain/snow mix in the afternoon.
Snow amounts have steadily decreased with each model run, and the chances of any significant impacts from this system due to snow accumulation are decreasing as well. Again, snow totals in the Valley will generally run in the zero to maybe a half inch. Any snow that occurs will quickly melt away with the rain/drizzle on Monday afternoon.
REST OF NEXT WEEK
Regardless of any snow accumulation through Monday morning, there is a consistent signal that temperatures will shift drastically warmer beginning on Tuesday of next week. The warming trend may continue into mid-March under a persistent southwest flow.
The warmth will come with a price, however. Shower and thunderstorm chances due to numerous disturbances in the west may lead to the potential of heavy rainfall and a higher than zero risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.
We’ll continue to monitor the model trends over the weekend. Look for updated snow maps on Saturday and Sunday mornings as the early week system continues to develop. There will likely be changes in the expected snow amounts, but this doesn’t look to be anything more than a low-impact weather event in our area.
