The fresh coating of snow from our early morning clipper will quickly melt away today under gradually increasing sunshine. While temperatures today will warm to the mid to upper 40s, there will be a gusty west wind, making it feel a bit colder than it is.
Recent model runs have made it necessary to make a big change in Thursday’s forecast. The latest ensemble runs have really come into agreement, favoring high pressure building into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Just a couple/few days ago, most modeling had the high centered over Ontario, leaving our area open to another round of snow from a passing disturbance. Given that high pressure is favored farther south, the passing disturbance will also be shunted much farther south.
Not only does this pretty much eliminate any snow chances for Thursday, but the building high pressure nearly overhead will set up a fairly nice day. It’ll be chilly with afternoon temperatures around 40°, but at least we will have bright sun instead of any snow.
A warm front will lift into eastern Ohio Friday morning, setting the stage for a warm-up Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will warm to the low-50s on Friday under a nearly cloudless sky. We’ll get to the mid-50s on Saturday. A really nice couple of days to wrap up February.
IMPACTFUL SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK?
Things start to get a little fuzzy as we flip the calendar to March. Some models favor a storm system in the vicinity of the Ohio or Tennessee Valleys. Some throw decent moisture our way, while others have it as a near miss. All of them pretty much disagree with the timing, position, and track of the low.
About the only thing we can say at this time is that there could be an impactful winter system in store for the region early next week. The details are just not there, and how this might impact the Tuscarawas Valley area will be linked to the track and position of the low. We can’t disregard any of the model solutions at this time. We could be looking at a snow event, or a rain event, or a mixed event, or even a complete miss.
We’re far enough out that all of the fine details will get worked out as we get into the weekend. All we can do is follow the trends going forward.
What we do have higher confidence in is a decent warming trend getting underway on or around March 5th/6th.
Thanks for tuning in. Enjoy the sunshine and have a great day.
Joe thank you for you useful insights on the weather as transportation coordinator for Dover City schools I relay on your reports for our weather in the valley. So thank you for being accurate.