A strong low pressure system will continue to track from the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes region over the next 24 to 48 hours, bringing an increasing risk of severe weather to the east-central Ohio region on Tuesday.
The combination of abundant instability, a warm and humid air mass, and strong wind shear aloft will result in a favorable environment for organized severe thunderstorms. In response, the NWS Storm Prediction Center maintains an Enhanced Risk, or Level 3 on a scale of 1 – 5, for severe weather in and around our area on Tuesday.
The likelihood of a Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watch during the afternoon period on Tuesday is considered very high as of Monday morning.
The primary threat on Tuesday will be the potential for damaging straight-line wind gusts. There is also a low, but non-zero, risk of large hail and isolated tornadoes in any discrete cells that may develop.
While there are uncertainties in the forecast as of Monday morning, this may play out with two waves of thunderstorms tomorrow. A first wave of mainly non-severe thunderstorms may develop and travel through the area Tuesday morning with the system’s warm front. A second round of storms may then develop during the mid afternoon/early evening period. This second round would be the most likely to produce severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts.
Expect showers and non-severe storms to continue into Tuesday night before the system’s cold front tracks through the region. Shower/storm chances will then decrease behind the front after midnight.
In addition to the wind threat, given the moisture-rich atmosphere that will set up behind Tuesday’s warm front, these storms will have plenty of moisture to work with and could produce torrential rainfall in some locations.
AFTER THE STORM
A much cooler and less humid weather pattern will set up on Wednesday and continue into the upcoming weekend.
Model runs today and tonight will likely bring more clarity to the forecast, so expect some changes in the hours ahead. We’ll keep you updated.
