We’ll wrap up this weekend with an absolutely fine day across the Tuscarawas Valley. We can enjoy a practically cloud-free day with daytime temperatures near average for this time of the year. As a bonus, dew points will back off some, hovering around the mid-60s. That will make the humidity levels a bit less extreme today.
All of today’s fair weather will be courtesy of weak high pressure and a capped atmosphere. These features will keep the threat of any rain/storms developing through the daytime hours to near zero despite a weak frontal boundary drifting south through the region today.
Sunday’s calm weather won’t hold, though. That cold front just to our south will reverse course and lift northward tonight. That will initiate a line of thunderstorms over the Great Lakes that travels southeast overnight tonight into Monday morning. The bulk of activity should keep well off to our west and north.
What happens next begins to get a little murky and will largely depend on how the atmosphere recovers from the early Monday activity and where that frontal boundary ends up settling. Storm ingredients – instability and mid-level shear – will almost certainly be in place.
The primary threat in any severe development in and around our area will be damaging wind gusts. But there will also be a low but non-zero risk of hail and isolated tornadoes as well.
Given the amounts of moisture available, any storms – severe or otherwise – could put down heavy rainfall. We’ve already seen plenty of rain lately, and additional heavy rain or training of storms could lead to flooding issues in some locations.
REST OF THE WEEK
Model uncertainty is off the charts going forward, but with an unstable atmosphere and that lingering frontal boundary meandering about, additional scattered and periodic showers and thunderstorms will likely persist through Tuesday and Wednesday. Additional precipitation going forward will only increase the risk for flooding, depending on where the heavier rainfall ends up.
Our weather should begin to trend drier Wednesday night through Friday as that boundary gets pushed farther to our south as Canadian high pressure builds into the Great Lakes region. This will work to bring drier air into our area and an end to the constant threat of showers and storms.
Have a great Sunday and enjoy this wonderful rain and storm break. We’ll keep you updated going forward.
