An active period gets underway today with a large upper-level low over the Great Lakes. Moisture will funnel in over the region providing us with plenty of potential for periods of rain today. As things heat up this afternoon, thunderstorms may enter the picture.
Instability will be marginal here in east-central Ohio this afternoon with just enough upper-level shear that may produce isolated gusty wind with afternoon storms. The Storm Prediction Center has portions of the region flagged for a marginal risk today.
Current guidance suggests the best odds for strong thunderstorms today will reside south of I-70. Still, even with a low threat, an isolated thunderstorm or two could reach severe criteria here in the Valley. A damaging wind gust is the primary threat.
The other factor in play today are pockets of heavy rainfall. Storms that develop today will be able to tap into a good bit of moisture. We’re currently running a nearly 2-inch deficit this month in the Valley and we could really use the rain. Just as it is with strong thunderstorms today, the potential for heavy rainfall increases south of I-70.
Thunderstorm activity will die down after sunset this evening. Rain chances will continue through the night as a warm front approaches southern Ohio and moisture continues to stream in. Here’s how the hi-res model paints the radar today through 1:00 AM Tuesday:
Showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms will visit once again as the warm front lifts through east-central Ohio on Tuesday.
Some drier air will migrate into the region on Wednesday but with the slow-moving low remaining in control, we will still need to keep at least chances for rain going.
With even higher amounts of moisture available, Tuesday will bring the highest potential for periods of heavy rain to the region. Rain amounts will vary across the area since the heaviest rain will occur where thunderstorms happen to visit. But, generally speaking, there is a potential for a good inch to 1.5 inches of rain during the next 72 hours.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
With drier air continuing to invade, the odds for rain will taper off Wednesday night into Thursday. Thursday actually looks like our first dry day of the work week. Confidence decreases as we get into the weekend. A disturbance may bring spotty showers back to the Valley on Friday but the models vary with regards to timing and placement.
Upper-level ridging looks to return for the weekend, although again, there are differences in modeling with regards to timing. For now, it looks like a dry weekend with high pressure supplying sunshine and warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.