Shower and storm chances return this week

High pressure will maintain dry weather conditions Sunday. The high will shift east into New England and a low will develop over the Mississippi Valley on Monday. The low will travel northeast and into the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and bring unsettled weather to the region for mid week. Unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week.

East-central Ohio will remain dry today under high pressure. We will start to see an increase in clouds today as the high shifts east and low pressure out of the Mississippi Valley approaches the region. The high resolution models show some isolated showers popping late in the day but these will mostly keep closer to the lake shore. Still, a renegade shower can’t be completely ruled out here in the Valley late in the evening.

Simulated radar from the hi-res model for today through 2:00 AM:

Temperatures will top out a degree or two higher today than Saturday and remain just under our average of 84 degrees.

Sunday will most likely be the last day we will be mainly dry with low dew points for a while.

Shower chances will increase on Monday as low pressure advances into the region with a warm front. Thunderstorms become likely by Tuesday with a cold front. With plenty of moisture available our area could actually see some moderate rainfall at times. Current NWSWPC projections bring an inch to 1.5 inches to the area through the week with the majority of that slated for Tuesday/Wednesday.

The heaviest rainfall will occur in locations that see the most thunderstorm activity but everyone should get in on some rain. That’s pretty good news since we’ve not really had much in the way of rain over the last ten days or so.

Persistent disturbances in the upper levels will keep the threat for daytime showers and storms through the end of the week. The best odds for activity will be during the afternoon and evening hours when instability is greatest.

With the prospects of general cloudiness and showers and storms ongoing through the week, temperatures slightly below average. Dew points will be elevated through mid week but will drop back behind the midweek cold front.

Temperatures and dew points will shoot upward for the weekend as afternoon highs reach the mid 80s. Saturday and Sunday have the best odds for dry days.

Widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected this week. However, a few storms may get a little feisty on Monday. Isolated severe storms would be possible from mid afternoon into the evening. The NWS Storm Prediction Center has southern Ohio flagged for a marginal risk. Wind gusts of 58 MPH are the primary threat on Monday.



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