Today will be a near carbon copy of Sunday. Hot and humid conditions will be pretty much the highlight for today. Instability this afternoon will be enough to trigger thunderstorms but warm temperatures in the mid-level will provide for a ‘cap’ that will limit coverage. Like yesterday, storms that get going today will be scattered about.
The best odds for any action will be in the afternoon and evening hours – when instability and temperatures will be highest. With the random nature, it’s tough to say where storms will fire. Storm chances will decrease after sunset and the loss of daytime heating.
Hi-res futurecast radar gives us a pretty good idea of the scattered nature of today’s storms:
The strongest thunderstorm activity today should remain well northwest of the east-central Ohio region. Today’s modeling suggests a weakening trend as storms travel southeast into central Ohio. BUT, a few thunderstorms could still pull down some gusty wind and heavy rain as they travel southeast. The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of east-central Ohio under a marginal risk for late today.
Sunday’s high was 91 and there is no reason for highs to be any lower today. Areas that may happen to end up under a shower or storm will see a brief respite from the heat.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
The main feature in this period will be a slow-moving cold front on Tuesday. The models indicate that most of the shower and thunderstorm activity will occur ahead of the front. As such, we can expect Tuesday to be a fairly active day with an increase in thunderstorm coverage compared to today. Showers and storms will continue Tuesday night and into Wednesday.
The amount of sun vs clouds tomorrow will determine thunderstorm coverage and intensity. That’s still questionable with today’s guidance. Widespread severe storms are not expected but, depending on the amount of sun we manage to see, a few storms could reach high enough to pull down some gusty winds.
The Storm Prediction Center has our area flagged in the marginal (low) risk category but we will continue to monitor for any changes.
With at least some cloudiness around, temperatures on Tuesday will not be quite as warm and afternoon highs should be a few degrees cooler than today – 85/87 degrees.
Our cold front will pretty much stall out over Lake Erie by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue again as a series of disturbances ride along the boundary. Outflow boundaries from previous thunderstorms will trigger additional scattered thunderstorm activity.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
High pressure will build briefly Wednesday night to quiet things down. Thursday should be a decent day with high pressure providing mostly sunny conditions. Another cold front on Friday will bring back the chances for showers and thunderstorms. Unsettled conditions will continue into the weekend with prospects for showers and storms each day.
Temperatures will be much cooler on Wednesday. Actually, about 8 to 10 degrees cooler. Afternoon highs on Wednesday will only reach the low 80s in most spots. Thereafter, temperatures near average should stay with us through the weekend.
SEVERE WX OUTLOOK
- MONDAY: Low risk for severe thunderstorms
- TUESDAY: Low risk for severe thunderstorms
- WEDNESDAY: Severe thunderstorms are not expected
- THURSDAY: Severe thunderstorms are not expected
- FRIDAY: Severe thunderstorms are not expected