TUESDAY: Scattered showers and thunderstorms today; Some could be strong

Thunderstorm activity from last evening and overnight has weakened substantially this morning. Most of the heaviest activity stayed well north of the Valley as expected. Actually, some areas in northern portions of the state received two inches of rain or better over the last 24 hours.

Radar estimated rain totals over northeast Ohio during the last 24 hours. Image via Scott Sabol.

Warm temperatures, humidity, and instability will provide plenty of fuel for thunderstorms today in the east-central Ohio region. All that’s needed is a spark. That will likely come from an upper-level disturbance this afternoon as a weak cold front approaches.

Thunderstorm intensity and coverage will depend on how much rain develops in the region this morning and the amount of cloud cover. Sunshine today would increase the likelihood for thunderstorms to reach high enough to pull down stronger winds aloft.

The Storm Prediction Center has the entire state highlighted for a marginal risk today.

A marginal risk means that isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible just about anywhere in east-central Ohio this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the main threats today but some hail would also be possible in the strongest thunderstorms. Brief, heavy rainfall is also something to watch for today.

TIMING
The better odds for thunderstorms – severe or not – will be during the afternoon and evening hours today. That’s when temperatures will be warmest and instability highest. Thunderstorm activity should weaken after sunset.

UPDATED rain odds as of 12:53 PM Tuesday afternoon.

Not everyone will get in on the active weather today and some neighborhoods will likely not see anything at all. Hi-res futurecast radar shows the scattered nature of today’s storms.

With the (hopefully) prospects of a cloudier day along with showers and thunderstorms around, temperatures will be cooler with afternoon highs in the mid 80s. Dew points will reach the low 70s so it will be fairly muggy too.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
Our weak frontal boundary will get hung up over Ohio and eventually dissipate Wednesday. Another disturbance will ride along the weakening boundary to keep the threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms going through Wednesday. The strongest thunderstorms tomorrow should be east of the Valley.

Temperatures will be noticeably cooler with afternoon highs in the low 80s. Dew points will still be in the muggy range.

Weak high pressure will build in for Wednesday night to bring an end to showers and storms. Thursday looks fairly decent under high pressure – mostly sunny. With the added sunshine, expect mid 80s for afternoon highs.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
A second weak cold front crosses the region on Friday bringing back increased odds for showers and thunder. The models have been fairly consistant with a cutoff low developing over the weekend to keep a threat for showers and storms in the forecast. While no one day should be a washout, we can expect to see an occasional shower or storm just about anywhere during the daytime hours through the weekend.

Temperatures through the weekend should be just about where they should be for this time of the year.

Despite a couple of weak fronts this week, dew points will remain quite muggy.