It’s very warm and it’s very muggy. The atmosphere overhead is moderately unstable. The only thing we need for thunderstorms to develop is a trigger. That will come as a cold front approaches east-central Ohio late this afternoon.
Already we can see cumulus clouds bubbling up out there this afternoon – a sure sign that storms are getting their act together.
All of today’s runs of the high-resolution model has been consistent with bringing a line of thunderstorms through the Valley early this evening.
Widespread severe thunderstorms are not expected with this system, BUT, a few cells in the line that will cross could produce strong damaging wind gusts. The atmosphere has plenty of moisture on hand (as you can tell by the humidity today). With lots of moisture for storms to tap into, heavy rain will also be something to watch out for.
The Storm Prediction Center has all of east-central Ohio under a marginal (low) risk for severe thunderstorms.
The NWSSPC is monitoring east-central Ohio but they indicate that a ‘Watch’ is not likely.
Again – In any one location…
- The threat for widespread severe storms is very low.
- Some storms may produce strong wind gusts.
- Heavy rainfall is also possible.
- Lightning is ALWAYS dangerous. When thunder roars get indoors.
Although a renegade shower or storm will be possible anytime this afternoon, the main line of thunderstorms will approach northern Tuscarawas County around 6:00 PM this evening. Expect a burst of gusty wind as storms approach your area. The line of storms will then continue southeast through the Valley. They should exit by 9:00/10:00 PM tonight.
Strong wind gusts in thunderstorms is the primary threat. Some storms may also produce heavy rainfall. These should move through at a moderate speed so we’re not expecting any big flood issues. Localized street flooding may occur and places that have poor drainage might have some problems.
Showers and thunderstorms will push southeast of the region overnight. Temperatures will be cooler on Thursday as the cold front pushes through. Better yet, dew points will also decrease during the day as drier air pushes into the region.