One more hot and humid day to get through before cooler and drier air arrives for the end of the work week. Today will begin decent enough and we should remain dry for the bulk of the morning and afternoon. It will still be another humid day and afternoon temperatures will approach 90 degrees once again.
Clouds will gradually increase as we go through the day with an approaching cold front. The strong area of high pressure responsible for our sunshine and uneventful weather will not want to give up ground willingly and allow the front to move southeast easily today. The front will eventually push into east-central Ohio late this afternoon, however.
Showers and thunderstorms will likely develop ahead of the front and begin moving into east-central Ohio by mid-afternoon. These will spread southeast from late afternoon into this evening. While there is not a huge threat for severe storms later today, a few storms may produce strong gusty winds.
The Storm Prediction Center has our region in the marginal risk category – meaning that isolated strong to severe storms are possible.
Today’s storms will also have an abundant amount of moisture to work with and any of them could produce tropical downpours. Storms may move slowly which raises concerns for flash flooding and minor flooding where drainage is poor.
The threat for showers and storms will continue through the evening decreasing after midnight as the front slowly creeps southeast. Residual clouds and a few spotty showers may lag behind early Thursday morning but the bulk of activity will be south of the Valley.
This warm and humid airmass that we’ve been suffering through the last several days will drift southward through Thursday. The cooler and much drier air will arrive here by mid or late afternoon. It will feel a whole lot different by Thursday evening. Gone will be the heat and stifling humidity.
TIMING
While a shower or storm will certainly be possible ahead of the front, the highest odds for strong to severe thunderstorms will hold off until around dinner time this evening. Hi-res futurecast radar through 1:00 AM Thursday:
The main line of thunderstorms looks to impact the Valley between 6:00 PM through 10:00 PM this evening.
IMPACTS
The main impacts from thunderstorms this evening will be the potential for ISOLATED strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall.
FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY
High pressure will build over the region Thursday night and Friday to bring back the sunshine. Friday will be a gorgeous day with low humidity and temperatures around 80 degrees during the afternoon.
The low humidity we enjoy Friday won’t last long. Moisture returns Saturday as high pressure shifts south setting up a southerly flow once again. A weakening cold front over the Great Lakes region will bring back odds for an afternoon shower or storm. With warmer air funneling in from the south, temperatures will warm back to the mid-80s.
That weak frontal boundary will stall out just south of Lake Erie on Sunday. With a warm and humid airmass overhead, the threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue.
Things turn a little iffy by Labor Day. The models indicate an upper-level ridge building Monday and Tuesday with variances between modeling on the strength. With such a warm and moist air in place, it’s tough to keep out any threat for popup showers and storms in the forecast. However, should the ridge become strong enough, it will reduce the odds. For now, we will need to keep at least a low chance for a spotty shower or storm going through Monday.
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
Ensemble models continue with a warm temperature outlook through the middle of next week before a cooldown in the second week of September. Although it won’t be as hot as this week, it will be toasty warm.
