Tropical heat and humidity today; Thunderstorms late in the day Wednesday

Very warm and humid conditions will continue today and Wednesday before a  late Wednesday cold front brings the likelihood of thunderstorms. No signs of below normal temperatures as we make our way into September.

If you were not a big fan of yesterday’s Miami-like weather, you will absolutely hate today. Temperatures this afternoon across east-central Ohio will be even hotter than yesterday under practically cloud-free skies. Some cumulus will bubble up this afternoon during the mid day heat.

Most neighborhoods in the Dover/New Phila area will see afternoon temperatures near the mid-90s later today. And, with dew points around 70, it will be absolutely sultry outdoors with heat index values in the upper 90s. It would not be impossible for some 100-degree heat indices in a few areas today.

Now for some good news. That warm humid air at the surface is also present in the upper levels today. That warm air above will keep air parcels from rising too quickly, thus putting a ‘cap’ on thunderstorm development.

There will be little relief after sunset and overnight. Dewpoint temperatures will not drop off much tonight keeping it warm and muggy and air temperatures will stay in the mid-70s until just before sunrise Wednesday morning.

Wednesday will bring little relief. It will still be a very humid day but increasing clouds tomorrow afternoon ahead of a cold front will help keep temperatures from getting as high as today. Today’s model runs have slowed the front a bit and any thunderstorm activity should hold off until late afternoon or evening. Temperatures will have plenty of time to climb to the upper 80s to near 90 degrees in the afternoon.

There is some slight concern for isolated severe wind gusts with thunderstorms depending on how early storms manage to develop with the front. With the models slowing the front up until after peak instability, the threat is fairly low – but something to keep watching.

There may be a few lingering showers as the front will slowly exit east of the region Thursday morning. Any precipitation lagging behind will quickly end as Canadian high pressure builds in bringing noticeably cooler temperatures and less humidity.

Expect afternoon temperatures Thursday in the upper 70s and much more comfortable dewpoints in the low 60s.

FRIDAY THROUGH LABOR DAY
Friday will be the nicest day of the long holiday weekend. With high pressure firmly in control look for mostly sunny conditions and afternoon highs in the low 80s.

But, the pleasant temperatures and low humidity will only be temporary. High pressure will shift east into New England by Saturday setting up a more southerly flow over the region. Expect warmer than average temperatures to return with highs in the mid-80s Saturday and Sunday. The best odds for showers and storms will be Saturday night into Sunday with the next frontal boundary.

We’ll need to keep a slight chance for an afternoon shower or storm in the forecast for Labor Day. Otherwise, it looks like a warm and muggy day for the last holiday of summer.

LONG RANGE
Model ensembles continue to agree with the NWSCPC outlook for a warmer than average temperature pattern through mid-week next week before cooler temperatures arrive for next weekend.

We’ll have a full update tomorrow that will focus on those late day showers and thunderstorms – including timing and the potential for strong storms here in the Valley.

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